TechDev Newsletter - Swing Trade Issue #1

Welcome to 1st Swing Trade Issue.

As discussed in the previous special issue, this newsletter will now be broken down into 2 weekly issues. A Market Update issue only to be paid members, and a Swing Trade issue to all subscribers. Both on Sundays (typically).

My apologies for not getting a Swing Trade Issue out last week as intended.

It look longer than expected to refine the lower timeframe signals I wanted to focus on in this issue.

In this Swing Trade Issue I will cover:

• BTC 3D signals

• ETH 3D signals

• Revised low timeframe system

Indicators

To follow these signals and setups live, or look for your own, the Dots and Trackline tools may be acquired at the TradingAlpha site, with the yearly Alpha Bundle.

BTC 3D Signals

See a 6-year backtest of the 3D BTC system here.

BTC exited its latest short at a 2% loss.

Possible Trade: Long

Would Open If: 2 green dots above trackline

S/L: 10%

Would Close If: Green dots stop

Possible Trade: Short

Would Open If: Red dots resume

S/L: 10%

Would Close If: Red dots stop of 40% PNL

ETH 3D Signals

See a 6-year backtest of the 3D ETH system here.

ETH is still in its latest short, currently at a 7% loss. S/L triggers at 10%.

Current Trade: Short

Active Since: 12/15/2022

S/L: 10%

Current PNL: -7%

Would Close If: Red dots stop after 3 consecutive, or long triggers, or S/L triggers

Possible Trade: Long

Would Open If: 2 green dots above trackline

S/L: 10%

Would Close If: Green dots stop

Low Timeframe Setups

Today I am going to introduce a revised low timeframe strategy using the indicators available through TradingAlpha.

I’ve spent significant time reviewing the previous rules, looking for opportunities for improvement.

While they are well-suited for higher timeframe candles like 3D, I believe there were significant gains left on the table on lower timeframes such as 12H.

I am very pleased with the revisions I’ve found, and will spend today introducing the new signals on DOGE, along with a backtest.

Next issue we will look for setups using them across a few different coins.

DOGE 12H

Here are the rules for the revised low timeframe system:

Timeframe: 12H

• Open Long when blue “R” on red candle below Trackline. (Stop-loss: 7%)

  • Or if candle closes below Trackline, then back above.

• Close Long when yellow “R” on green candle above Trackline. (and Open Short)

  • Or if candle closes above Trackline, then back below.

• Open Short when yellow “R” on green candle above Trackline. (Stop-loss: 7%)

  • Or if candle closes above Trackline, then back below.

• Close Short when blue “R” on red candle below Trackline. (and Open Long)

  • Or if candle closes below Trackline, then back above.

It’s a simple system, but has worked remarkably well, even during the chop.

I find it to be more aggressive than the prior dot-based system on lower timeframes and it consistently captured much more of the moves.

While there were stopped trades, they were far exceeded in number and magnitude by the wins.

Here is the backtest over the last 7 months.

• Trades: 22 (14 wins, 8 losses)

• Win Rate: 64%

• Avg Win PNL: 19.43% (min 3%, max 97%)

• Avg Loss PNL: -7% (all losses -7%)

• Compounded Gains: 5.4x ($10K investment returned $44K)

• Market Gains During Test: 1.3x ($10K investment returned $3K)

• Leverage: None on Longs, 1x (minimum) on Shorts.

As far as the current trade:

Current Trade: Long

Open Since: 12/29/2022

S/L: 7%

Current PNL: 4%

Would Close If: Yellow “R“ prints on green candle above Trackline

Or if candle closes above Trackline, then back below

To follow these signals and setups live, or look for your own, please visit the TradingAlpha site.

All packages contain the “R”s. Trackline only available in yearly Alpha Bundle.

Next Week

A Market Update issue only to be paid members, and a Swing Trade issue to all subscribers. Both on Sundays.

Wishing you great second week of 2023.