TechDev Newsletter - Market Update Issue #85
Signal Convergence: The Case for 2026
2025 was a year of noise. War fears, tariff whiplash, US government crypto regulation and participation - the headlines provided endless reasons to doubt, react, and second-guess.
Today, as we close out the year, I want to take a holistic view of the market and establish the macro positioning for everything that has ever influenced crypto. We’ll stack all the signals together for the complete picture, drawing from history as data for what will probabilistically emerge from today’s setup in 2026.
The conclusion is straightforward: every major signal I track is positioned similarly to the second half of 2020 - the period that immediately preceded one of the most explosive moves in crypto history.
Today’s Topics
The Business Cycle Foundation
The Clean Signal
The Mini-Cycle Explained
Cross-Asset Validation
Manufacturing Confirms
Ethereum’s Structural Setup
ETH/BTC: The Altcoin Ratio
Russell 2000: Small Cap Stocks
Signal Convergence
Bringing It All Together
The Precious Confirmation
Looking Ahead
What 2026 Holds
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