TechDev Newsletter - Market Update Issue #78

Two Paths Forward: Navigating the Business Cycle Inflection

As promised last issue, today I'm detailing the two potential paths Bitcoin could take from here, each with distinct implications for exit strategy. The addition of another signal to our business cycle framework has provided enhanced timing precision, revealing we may be closer to a key inflection point than the standard signal would suggest.

What's particularly noteworthy is how Ethereum's current structure mirrors this same point in 2020 almost perfectly - exactly where the business cycle indicators suggest we should be. This confluence, combined with the continuing NASDAQ analog, provides a comprehensive picture of where we stand and what's likely ahead.

The paths diverge based on how quickly the business cycle indicators reach their historical topping zones. History shows us two precedents: the rapid surge of 2021 and the measured progression of 2017. Both are possible from here, and I'll explain what to watch for to determine which is unfolding.

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Today's topics

Market Update

• The NASDAQ Analog and Market Structure

• Enhanced Business Cycle Framework

• Ethereum's Structural Confirmation

• Path 1: The Accelerated Scenario

• Path 2: The Measured Scenario

• Determining Which Path We're On