TechDev Newsletter - Market Update Issue #71

The Slow Burn: Liquidity, Gold, and Navigating a Longer Cycle

Bitcoin's recent price action, while not precisely mirroring the most granular short-term paths, has broadly adhered to the structure we've anticipated. As I've often reiterated, precise low-timeframe (LTF) predictions are a lower priority; my strategic focus remains firmly on the mid and high-timeframe signals that dictate our overarching cycle thesis. The current environment, characterized by the longest liquidity compression phase we've seen in recent cycles, is undeniably shaping what appears to be the slowest-moving crypto cycle to date. This elongated nature, where corrections and consolidations stretch longer than in previous eras, understandably contributes to market confusion and impatience.

Despite this slower pace, the underlying drivers – particularly global liquidity and its relationship with the business cycle – continue to provide a clear, data-driven framework. Today, we'll revisit these foundational elements, examine how gold's macro structure offers compelling parallels and potential insights into Bitcoin's trajectory, and dive deep into the altcoin market's unprecedented compressive state. Crucially, I'll also share a revised, simplified exit strategy, leveraging the concept of treating your portfolio as a personal index – a theme we began exploring with the recent launch of the Crypto Portfolio Analyzer.

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Today’s topics

Bitcoin

• Roadmap Update: Navigating the Current Consolidation

• Liquidity's Enduring Lead: The "Most Important Chart" Revisited

• Short-Term Targets & Liquidity's Guidance

• Gold's Macro Clues: Rotation & Structural Parallels

Altcoins

• Unprecedented Macro Compression

• Structural Analogs & The Rise of Ex-ETH Dominance

• Portfolio as an Index: A Case Study

• My Revised Exit Strategy for 2025