TechDev Newsletter - Market Update Issue #81

Local Top Identification and Revised Exit Strategy

Big issue today.

What we’re witnessing isn’t the clean parabolic structure many expect from crypto cycles, but rather a grinding, choppy advance that feels uncertain in the moment yet maintains its upward trajectory over time.

Today’s analysis focuses on delivering what I promised last issue: a concrete framework for identifying local tops and bottoms within this trunk structure, and a completely revised exit strategy designed specifically for navigating extended wave 3 movements in slow business cycle environments.

The business cycle remains our North Star, and its positioning continues to tell the same story it’s been telling for months: we’re at the bottom, not the top. The extended timeline that has characterized this cycle isn’t changing that fundamental reality - it’s merely stretching the timeframe over which it unfolds.

I’ve spent considerable time refining the local top identification system, testing it against historical data, and ensuring it provides actionable signals rather than adding to the noise. What I’m presenting today represents a straightforward approach that balances simplicity with effectiveness.

Additionally, the Portfolio Analyzer has undergone significant structural improvements. While some features have been temporarily removed for refinement, what’s been added - particularly the Local Top Meter - provides immediate value for position management.

Today’s Topics

Bitcoin

• Business Cycle: The North Star Unchanged

• Bullish Divergence at Historic Extremes

• Gold’s Cycle Alignment

• The Nested Cup-and-Handle Structure

• Ultra-Low Timeframe Projections

Ethereum

• The Trunk Develops

• ETH-AMZN Analog Continues

• Local Top Identification Framework

• RSI Zones for Tactical Trading

Exit Strategy

• Two Camps, Two Approaches

• Camp 2: Trading the Trunk

• Implementation Guidelines

Portfolio Analyzer »

• Local Top Meter Launch

• Forecast System Redesign

• Coming Soon Features