TechDev Newsletter - Market Update Issue #89
What Most Consider "The Cycle", Hasn’t Even Started Yet
If you feel like this cycle has been a disappointment, I understand. But I’d encourage you to reconsider the framing.
What most people think of as “the crypto cycle” - the parabolic, euphoric blowoff that ends in capitulation - is only one phase of a much larger structure. And by the metrics that have explained every single prior cycle’s behavior, that phase hasn’t even begun yet. What we’ve experienced over the past three years has been a slow, grinding advance within the early-stage phase of what I believe will be the longest and most significant cycle in Bitcoin’s history.
Today, I’m going to take a fresh look at why the data supports that view, starting with a review of the macro thesis using what I consider the most important chart in crypto. I’ll then show you why we may only be at the halfway point of this broader move, what the long-term wave structure suggests lies ahead, and why the current correction - while painful - should resolve far more violently to the upside than the 2022 bottom did.
For Ethereum, the Amazon analog continues to track with uncanny precision, and I’ll break down the short-term paths I’m watching for both BTC and ETH. Finally, I’ll discuss a practical way to position for this final leg down using inverse ETFs, for those looking to maximize capital heading into the macro bottom.
Today’s Topics
Bitcoin
Refreshing the Macro Thesis
We’re Only Halfway
Wave 3 of 3: The Bigger Picture
Liquidity’s Disconnection Should Drive a Swift Reversal
Short-Term Structure: The Final Leg Down
Ethereum
The Amazon Analog: Still Tracking
Short-Term Paths for ETH and BTC
Strategy
Playing the Downside with Inverse ETFs
