TechDev Newsletter - Market Update Issue #95
The Roadmap Refresh: A Year-Long Path for Bitcoin and Ethereum into 2027
The breakdown that I called for across Issue #93 and Issue #94 is tracking cleanly, the macro business cycle has lifted off its bottom and confirmed its turn, and that means the conditions I said I wanted before plotting a fresh roadmap are finally in place. So today I am going to do exactly what I said I would do. After a few short-term updates to keep the active trades on track, I am laying out a complete year-long roadmap for both Ethereum and Bitcoin that runs all the way into the middle of 2027.
I want to be clear about the sequencing up front, because it matters for how you read everything that follows. The final sub-leg lower is not finished yet. I still expect ETH and BTC to terminate this move lower, and as you will see in the short-term charts, I have refined the timing on that bottom.
So the roadmap I am drawing is anchored on a bottom that is still a few weeks out. That is by design. The whole point of waiting was to build this path against the structure as it confirms rather than rushing it while the breakdown was still in its early stages. We are now close enough to the bottom, with enough confirmation behind us, that I am comfortable committing to the year ahead.
Underpinning all of it is the business cycle, and I want to be honest and transparent about where my thesis carries genuine uncertainty there. So today we will move through the short-term picture, then the engine driving everything, then the two roadmaps themselves.
Today’s topics
Short-Term Updates
Ethereum: The Second-Flag Breakdown, Unchanged
The Swing Failure Detour: A Low-Timeframe Refinement
Bitcoin: The Double Bottom
The Engine
The Business Cycle and the Question of the Red Zone
The Year-Long Roadmap
Ethereum into 2027: The Amazon Backdrop
Bitcoin into 2027: The Cup and Handle to Six Figures
Closing
What’s Next: Altcoins, the Ratio, and the Forecaster
