TechDev Newsletter - Market Update Issue #86
What About a 2008-Style Crash?
A reasonable concern has emerged among subscribers: what if we’re heading into a 2008-style Great Recession? Bitcoin has never experienced one. Would my business cycle analysis break if it finally did?
It’s a fair question. The frameworks I’ve built over the past several years are grounded in data from Bitcoin’s existence - roughly 16 years. A true economic collapse of the magnitude we saw in 2008 would be uncharted territory for crypto.
But here’s what the macro cycle indicators actually show: we’re currently at the same bottoming levels as after the Great Recession, not before it. The very indicators that would warn of an impending collapse are instead positioned at the levels that have historically marked the end of major economic contractions - including the deepest one in modern history.
Today I’ll walk through this evidence systematically. We’ll examine the business cycle positioning, the RSI bullish divergence that continues to build, and a leading indicator from copper miners that’s already signaling the reversal. I’ll also introduce a unique bottom indicator using the Bitcoin/Silver ratio that has fired at the exact bottom of every prior bear market - and just fired again.
Finally, I’ll address the short-term picture. While the macro setup points decisively higher, I see two possible paths from here - one where the correction has already ended, and one where we see a final leg down into the 60K range before the larger advance begins. I’ll show you exactly what to watch to determine which scenario is unfolding.
Given the urgency of this short-term monitoring, the altcoin structure analysis I mentioned at the end of last issue will be covered next time.
Today’s Topics
The 2008 Question
Leading Indicators
A Unique Bottom Signal
Short-Term Scenarios
Key Levels to Watch
