TechDev Newsletter - Market Update Issue #94
Short-Term Breakdown Confirms and the Macro Cycle Finally Turns
For the first time in what feels like many issues, both halves of the picture I have been building are confirming at the same time. The short-term breakdown that I have been calling for across both Bitcoin and Ethereum is now visibly playing out along the structural lines I projected last issue. And on the macro side, the business cycle indicators I have been tracking for years have finally lifted off the level that defines the bottom of every prior cycle and started their impulsive move higher. After three years of agonizing, grinding, time-dilated chop, the two events I have been waiting for are landing together.
Today’s issue is going to stay focused on those two confirmations and the precision they give us. There is no need to rebuild the structural thesis from scratch, the work in recent issues already did that. What I want to do here is update the final sub-leg targets now that the breakdown is in motion, then walk through three different lenses on the business cycle turn so the macro context is locked in before the next issue. Because next issue, with the business cycle finally cooperating, I am going to do what I have been promising: lay out a fresh, specific roadmap for the next year for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. I want the next two weeks to plot it carefully against the latest data.
Today’s topics
Ethereum
The Bear Flag Breakdown Confirms
Refined Target: 1.272 Fib Extension at $1400-1600
Bitcoin
Same Structure, Different Retrace
Refined Target: Trend-Based Extension at $57K-$63K
The Macro Turn
2M MACD: The Strongest Business Cycle Signal
2M RSI: Same Story, Told Differently
2M Composite: The Liquidity-Adjusted Version
Closing
The Bridge to Next Issue’s Roadmap
