Eleven days ago I sent members a brief update with an early flag. The Bollinger Bands on both majors had compressed to their tightest since the breakout, and I told you the local top might already be in, that I did not know yet, and that how price paired with band expansion would make the decision for us. Breaking down with expansion meant the local top was in. Breaking up with expansion meant it was yet to be in.
We got the latter. Both majors faked out to the downside on September 15 and 16, stopped at their lower bands, never expanded, and reversed. Bitcoin is back above $81K, Ethereum has printed a new high for the move above $2650, and the ETHU long from ~$13 that the compression put in question is alive and closing in on its first target.
Today I want to put that fakeout in its proper context, because it has a precedent I find very hard to ignore, then walk through Ethereum and a revised swing map for the ETF trades, and then spend real time on tether dominance, which I still believe is one of the clearest overall market signals we have and which is lining up with everything else from the short term to the macro. After that comes a deliberately quick Gem Score board, and a poll where your vote decides which piece of the new TechDev platform launches next issue.
Today’s topics
Bitcoin
The Supertrend Breakout Has a Precedent
The Fakeout, and Where the Push Ends
Ethereum
Still on the Roadmap, Running Ahead of Schedule
The RSI Tell for the Local Top
The Trades
The Revised ETF Swing Map
Tether Dominance
The Macro: A Lagging Repeat of the Dollar
The Weekly Trendline Break
The Daily: A Bounce Is Building
The Gem Score
The Board
The New TechDev Platform
Your Vote Decides What Launches Next
Closing
