TechDev Newsletter - Market Update Issue #88

Navigating the Final Leg: A Tactical Playbook

The macro picture hasn’t changed. Everything I presented in Issue #87 remains intact - the business cycle is at the bottom, the wave 2 of wave 2 structure continues to develop, and the setup for wave 3 of 3 remains as compelling as anything I’ve tracked in this market’s history. Nothing in the past two weeks has altered that thesis.

So today I’m not going to rehash the long-term case. Instead, I want to focus entirely on the short term - specifically, dissecting the most likely path to the Q1 bottom for those looking to tactically position around this final corrective leg. If you’re in Camp 1 and simply holding through, the message remains the same: stay the course. But for Camp 2 traders wanting to swing a portion of their portfolio to grow capital before reinvesting at the macro bottom, this issue is for you.

I’ve identified two primary scenarios for how this final leg plays out, along with a third invalidation scenario that would confirm the market has already bottomed. Each comes with specific levels, analog comparisons, and actionable structure across both ETH and BTC.

Today’s Topics

• Ethereum

  • The Amazon Analog: Targeting the Final Low

• Bitcoin

  • The Inverted Rising Wedge: Same Conclusion

• Short-Term Trading Structure

  • BTC Daily: The Pump Before the Drop

  • ETH Daily: Two Sub-Paths to the Bottom

• Invalidation

  • What Confirms We’ve Already Bottomed

• My Positioning

• Closing