TechDev Newsletter - Market Update Issue #91
The Final Leg Unfolds: Confluence, Trades, and The Business Cycle
Markets continue to grind through what I believe is the final corrective leg of this cycle. As I’ve reiterated across recent issues, the structural picture for both Bitcoin and Ethereum has been pointing toward one more leg down before a major reversal takes hold. What’s changed over the past two weeks is not the thesis - it’s the precision with which we can now define the targets. The flag structures are confirming, the Fib extensions are stacking up with remarkable confluence, and the macro business cycle indicators are finally - after years of patience - showing the kind of bottoming signal that only comes around once a decade.
Today, we’ll walk through the fine details of how this final leg is unfolding for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, review the trade ideas shared in Issue #90 and their outcomes, introduce a new Ethereum trade setup, and then zoom all the way out to the business cycle picture that underpins this entire thesis.
Today’s topics
Bitcoin
Flag Confluence: Defining the Final Target
Ethereum
Dual Confluence for ETH’s Target
Trade Review
BITI: Surviving the Squeeze
ETHD: Stopped Out and Re-Entering
Business Cycle
The Longest Bottom in History
A Bullish Divergence Unlike Anything We’ve Seen
