TechDev Newsletter - Market Update Issue #51

Cutting Through the Noise.

OK folks, lots to get into today. This issue will feature one of my most significant charts on global business/liquidity cycles.

Obviously, there is extreme fear in the market. The last two weeks were filled with “told you” comments from doomer bears—on a retest to 48K levels they previously said would never be reached the last time they were doom-posting at 25K.

Exactly what I like to see. The fact that it came at a time when global macro conditions are pointing up makes it nothing more than two weeks of loud noise to me. More like the last six months.

It’s usually the case in all speculative markets, but the last two years have reflected this more than any other time in the crypto market—it doesn’t move up until X is scared absolutely shitless. That was the case at 15K after the FTX crash, at 20K after regional banks were failing, at 38K after the brutal post-ETF wick, and now.

What you’ll also recall is how much sentiment can whiplash in a couple of weeks. Expecting it again. All the while, the global cycle continues to point higher.

Today I want to show you why. I’ll do my best to connect the sections into the guiding story: a rise into EOY/Q1-25 is probable to this global cycle’s top. I expect these cycles to continue thereafter, but possibly more subdued as part of a rise toward an end-of-decade secular blowoff leg.

Let’s go.

Today’s topics:

Bitcoin

• Weekly Bitcoin Chart

• Key Chart: Bitcoin and the Global Cycle

• Why 2025+ Could Be Tricky

Altcoins

• Tether Dominance

• Bitcoin Dominance

• DMTR Update

• DOGE Signals