TechDev Newsletter - Market Update Issue #92
The Consolidation Extends: Same Structure, More Patience
If there’s been one recurring theme across this entire cycle, it’s that everything takes longer than expected. The bottoming of the business cycle has taken longer. The corrective waves within Bitcoin’s structure have taken longer. And now, the final consolidation before what I believe will be the last leg down has taken longer as well. But taking longer is not the same as changing direction. And when I look at the current structure across both Bitcoin and Ethereum, I see the same corrective profile, the same measured move targets, and the same macro backdrop that has defined every issue for the past several months. Nothing has changed - except the calendar.
Today’s issue is a focused short-term update. I’m going to walk through the extended consolidation in both BTC and ETH, explain why I believe a breakdown is ahead despite the drawn-out timeline, review the outcome of both trades from Issue #91, and lay out one more aggressive pair of setups to capture this final move.
We’ll close with a quick look at the business cycle, which - after years of grinding along the bottom - may finally be showing signs of a decisive turn. Next issue, assuming the final leg is underway, I plan to shift gears entirely and publish a comprehensive macro piece covering long-term targets for both Bitcoin and altcoins as we position for the cycle’s real move higher.
Today’s topics
Bitcoin
Extended Consolidation: The 2022 Analog Still Holds
Ethereum
Same Structure, Same Story
Trade Review & New Setups
BITI: Stopped Out, Re-Entering Aggressive
ETHD: Stopped Out Again, One More At-Bat
Business Cycle
The Turn May Finally Be Here
