TechDev Newsletter - Market Update Issue #97
As the Bottom Forms, the Edge Is When and What
In my opinion, Bitcoin is double-bottoming just under $60K, Ethereum is doing the same at $1568, both of them in the bands I drew in Issue #95, and the engine has turned green. For the first time in this entire correction, the smart money and the loud money agree with me. That should make me happy. Instead it makes me careful, because consensus is a tell, and what it tells you is that the easy money in being early to the bottom is already gone.
So I am going to do something different with this issue. I am not going to re-litigate the low. Last issue did that, the structure has not changed, and redrawing the same flags one more time is not worth your inbox. The question that pays from here is not whether the rotation is coming. The question is exactly when it triggers and what leads it when it does, and almost nobody is doing the work on either one.
Two pieces answer those two questions. The first is a time-aligned read of the ETH/BTC ratio that puts an actual date on the rotation rather than a vibe. The second is the dispersion and rate-of-change tape underneath the market, which is already naming what is turning while the screens still show one red block.
Today’s topics
The Consensus
The Bottom and the Engine
The Clock
The Ratio Fractal: Putting a Date on the Rotation
The Tape Underneath
Dispersion: The Menu Is Spreading
Rate of Change: The First Mover Nobody Is Watching
Closing
The Clock, the Menu, and What to Do Now
