TechDev Newsletter - Market Update Issue #82

Major Short-Term Update, Macro Remains Clear

Major update today. I’ve spent considerable time studying the charts and macro signals, and I need to share an important adjustment to the near-term forecast. The conclusion is straightforward: macro screams higher, but I now expect a short-term move lower market-wide before we catch up with the inflecting business cycle.

This isn’t capitulation to bearish sentiment. This is adaptation based on what the data is showing. I’ve always tried to give it to you straight, to share how I see it as the picture develops, and today requires exactly that kind of transparency.

The business cycle positioning remains unambiguously bullish for the macro picture. We’re at the bottom, not the top. Nothing about that fundamental read has changed. What has changed is my understanding of how we get from here to there over the next several months. The path appears more volatile in the near term than I previously projected.

I’m also launching major updates to the Portfolio Analyzer app today. The 2nd generation forecast model represents a complete overhaul of the prediction system, arriving at precisely the moment when understanding your portfolio’s trajectory through the upcoming volatility becomes most critical.

Given this adjustment to the short-term forecast, I’m temporarily shelving the trunk Local Top Meter until we’re past this near-term corrective move. In its place, I’m launching the Relief Rally Meter to track the probability of a local corrective high forming before the move down.

Today’s Topics

Market Update

• Business Cycle Signals: The Macro Foundation

• Ethereum’s Corrected Structure

• The AMZN Analog Realignment

• Wave Structure and Near-Term Projections

• Fib Confluence and Timing

• Bitcoin’s Extended Timeline

• The Trunk Remains, Volatility Increases

Portfolio Analyzer Updates

• New Forecast Model

• Relief Rally Meter