Brief Bitcoin Update + Explosive Meme Play

And Why the Overall Market Looks Ready to Leg Up

Next week will cover my complete scale-out/reaccumulation strategy for my entire portfolio heading into what I still expect will be the first of “2 tops”.

This week I will be issuing a brief update on Bitcoin and the overall crypto market, as well as elaborating on the high risk/high reward microcap meme play I posted earlier.

Let’s get into how Bitcoin is looking and why that meme looks so enticing…

Bitcoin

You’ve seen this impulse idea for quite some time and it continues to print. The wave characters are a little different this time than last, but the overall structure is rhyming beautifully.

This latest RSI downtrend has pierced below the previously low and is trying to get back above 50. If it does, and successfully prints higher low on or above 50, I will deem the correction over.

I’ve seen this setup where RSI makes a new low as compared to the previous (while price does not, i.e., hidden bull divergence) countless times during crypto parabolic runs. Each and every time it signifies that the parabolic trend is about to continue with vigor.

If we confirm correction end, I am looking for a move like purple next. 92-97K likely, with a retest of the 73K zone thereafter.

As mentioned before, the question of whether this subwave 5 is blowoff vs rounded remains a key uncertainty. The price action that emerges during subwave 5 should clue us in.

Next week I will also cover the 2 prime scenarios for what comes after subwave 5.

See below for a zoomed out view of the 4W chart. An undeniable RSI channel has emerged, and we are above the channel median. That’s always led to a move to the top, with at least one touch. The fact that this current impulse seems about to start its subwave 5, yet we have so much HTF gas in the tank, is one reason I expect “2 tops”.

Zoom out even further to the 6W and note how Bitcoin has consistently behaved with regard to the liquidity signal and its cycles. There is probably about an hour of chart work and 50 hours of background research in this one image, so take some time to soak it in.

In short, Bitcoin’s macro expansion has always started in-line with the liquidity cycle inflection, which I mark with Vortex bull crosses.

Also note the upper curve to the expansion signal (Bollinger band with), which implies further expansion remains before this macro move is over.

What does this all mean? There is plenty of gas in tanks of the liquidity cycle and Bitcoin macro expansion. While this current move may have one more sub-impulse left, a second parabolic move is likely before the liquidity cycle and macro expansion are exhausted. I will cover how this fits into a wave count scenario next week.

Overall Market

I like to use Tether dominance to get a pulse on the overall market. Bearish Tether dominance is bullish crypto.

The distribution scenario I laid out months ago continues to print. See below.

And now take a look at the weekly chart of Tether dominance.

Any crypto bears have to look at this chart and call it bullish. If they do, they are deluding themselves with bias.

Nasty looking weekly (with shrinking candle bodies) into both the 20W and 200W MAs (as a bearish retest of prior support turned resistance) right after the first death cross in the history of Tether dominance.

Safe to say I am betting on this continuing down, which of course is bullish for the market.

Microcap Meme

The coin is $FOFAR, named after one the characters in the PEPE universe.

Contract is 0xeff49b0f56a97c7fd3b51f0ecd2ce999a7861420.

It is renounced, audited, and has been given a 99/99 reliability score on dextools.

The chart shows one of my favorite accumulation structures — one of the reasons I was bullish on DMTR (still am).

Multiple higher lows build during boring price oscillation. It’s possible it is at the end of the blue oval, or it may dance around a few more times before likely marking up.

Any microcap, especially a meme, is extremely risky. It’s the price you pay for the 100x-1000x potential. I invest in these as I would at a casino - these meme plays are no different than gambling. Though with reads on structures like the one below, we can try to tilt the tables in our favor.

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