In the meantime, today’s issue is a short, focused interlude. There is one piece of structural analysis on Ethereum that I have not yet shared in this level of detail, and it is one that I think captures everything I have been pounding the table about for months. It is a structure within a structure within a structure, a nested fractal that not only supports the projection of one more sub-leg down but also pre-defines the rapid V-shaped recovery I expect to follow. And once you see it, you can start to lay out a clean two-trade roadmap that, in my view, conservatively offers a 10x return on trading capital by the end of the year, before the parabolic phase of the macro cycle has even begun.

This is the trade picture I have been working toward for months. The window is finally opening.

Today’s topics

Ethereum

• Structure Within a Structure Within a Structure

• The Final Leg to $1400-$1600

The Two-Trade Path to 10x

• ETHD: The Conservative Re-Entry (2.5x)

• ETHU: The V-Bottom Long (4.5x)

• The Compounded Math

Closing

• Confirmation Watch & What Comes Next

Read more

Today’s issue is a focused short-term update. I’m going to walk through the extended consolidation in both BTC and ETH, explain why I believe a breakdown is ahead despite the drawn-out timeline, review the outcome of both trades from Issue #91, and lay out one more aggressive pair of setups to capture this final move.

We’ll close with a quick look at the business cycle, which - after years of grinding along the bottom - may finally be showing signs of a decisive turn. Next issue, assuming the final leg is underway, I plan to shift gears entirely and publish a comprehensive macro piece covering long-term targets for both Bitcoin and altcoins as we position for the cycle’s real move higher.

Today’s topics

Bitcoin

• Extended Consolidation: The 2022 Analog Still Holds

Ethereum

• Same Structure, Same Story

Trade Review & New Setups

• BITI: Stopped Out, Re-Entering Aggressive

• ETHD: Stopped Out Again, One More At-Bat

Business Cycle

• The Turn May Finally Be Here

Read more

Today, we’ll walk through the fine details of how this final leg is unfolding for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, review the trade ideas shared in Issue #90 and their outcomes, introduce a new Ethereum trade setup, and then zoom all the way out to the business cycle picture that underpins this entire thesis.

Today’s topics

Bitcoin

• Flag Confluence: Defining the Final Target

Ethereum

• Dual Confluence for ETH’s Target

Trade Review

• BITI: Surviving the Squeeze

• ETHD: Stopped Out and Re-Entering

Business Cycle

• The Longest Bottom in History

• A Bullish Divergence Unlike Anything We’ve Seen

Read more

Today’s issue is going to be a focused, tactical update. Rather than a broad macro deep dive, I want to zero in on the short-term structure, show you exactly why I believe this final push lower is imminent, and lay out two specific trade setups for those looking to capitalize on it. This is the first time I’ve included a dedicated short-term trade section in the newsletter, and I’d like your feedback on whether this is something you’d like to see more regularly. More on that at the end.

As I’ve often reiterated, the macro thesis has not wavered. The business cycle is at its trough, the liquidity cycle has yet to produce the kind of major peak that has always coincided with Bitcoin’s cycle tops, and the structural analog to the NASDAQ trunk continues to unfold. This correction is a deviation within the trend, not a reversal of it.

Today’s topics

Bitcoin

• The Inverted View: One More Leg

• Macro Roadmap: Negative Trunk Deviation and the Liquidity Cycle

• Liquidity Lead-Lag Timing

Short-Term Trade Ideas

• BITI: Short Bitcoin Setup

• ETHD: Short Ethereum Setup

Reader Poll

Read more

What most people think of as “the crypto cycle” - the parabolic, euphoric blowoff that ends in capitulation - is only one phase of a much larger structure. And by the metrics that have explained every single prior cycle’s behavior, that phase hasn’t even begun yet. What we’ve experienced over the past three years has been a slow, grinding advance within the early-stage phase of what I believe will be the longest and most significant cycle in Bitcoin’s history.

Today, I’m going to take a fresh look at why the data supports that view, starting with a review of the macro thesis using what I consider the most important chart in crypto. I’ll then show you why we may only be at the halfway point of this broader move, what the long-term wave structure suggests lies ahead, and why the current correction - while painful - should resolve far more violently to the upside than the 2022 bottom did.

For Ethereum, the Amazon analog continues to track with uncanny precision, and I’ll break down the short-term paths I’m watching for both BTC and ETH. Finally, I’ll discuss a practical way to position for this final leg down using inverse ETFs, for those looking to maximize capital heading into the macro bottom.

Today’s Topics

Bitcoin

• Refreshing the Macro Thesis

• We’re Only Halfway

• Wave 3 of 3: The Bigger Picture

• Liquidity’s Disconnection Should Drive a Swift Reversal

• Short-Term Structure: The Final Leg Down

Ethereum

• The Amazon Analog: Still Tracking

• Short-Term Paths for ETH and BTC

Strategy

• Playing the Downside with Inverse ETFs

Read more

So today I’m not going to rehash the long-term case. Instead, I want to focus entirely on the short term - specifically, dissecting the most likely path to the Q1 bottom for those looking to tactically position around this final corrective leg. If you’re in Camp 1 and simply holding through, the message remains the same: stay the course. But for Camp 2 traders wanting to swing a portion of their portfolio to grow capital before reinvesting at the macro bottom, this issue is for you.

I’ve identified two primary scenarios for how this final leg plays out, along with a third invalidation scenario that would confirm the market has already bottomed. Each comes with specific levels, analog comparisons, and actionable structure across both ETH and BTC.

Today’s Topics

• Ethereum

  • The Amazon Analog: Targeting the Final Low

• Bitcoin

  • The Inverted Rising Wedge: Same Conclusion

• Short-Term Trading Structure

  • BTC Daily: The Pump Before the Drop

  • ETH Daily: Two Sub-Paths to the Bottom

• Invalidation

  • What Confirms We’ve Already Bottomed

• My Positioning

• Closing

Read more

Today I’m bringing together the complete picture. From the business cycle finally reaching its line in the sand, to the ETH fractal that’s been tracking Amazon’s 2008 structure with uncanny precision, to altcoin setups that mirror structures which preceded massive vertical legs in the past. Every signal I track is pointing to the same conclusion: we’re in the final stages of a wave 2 within a wave 2, and what comes next is the strongest wave of the strongest wave.

I’ll also address the Portfolio Analyzer. Given the magnitude of these developments and the convergence of signals, a major revision to the forecasting system is clearly needed. That update is coming - but I want to let the dust settle from this final corrective leg first to ensure the new model captures the full picture.

Today’s Topics

Business Cycle

• The Line in the Sand

• Why This Cycle Has Felt Different

ETH Fractal

• Amazon 2008: Still Tracking

Altcoin Structures

• Rounded Tops Spell Vertical Legs

• The Inverse DXY Blueprint

USDT.D

• The Lagging Confirmation

Bringing It All Together

• Wave 2 of Wave 2: The Complete Picture

Portfolio Analyzer

• Major Update Coming

Read more

Despite the delay, I wanted to provide a quick update on the two short-term scenarios I outlined last issue - because recent price action has shifted the probabilities.

Stay safe if you’re in the path of the storm.

Read more

It’s a fair question. The frameworks I’ve built over the past several years are grounded in data from Bitcoin’s existence - roughly 16 years. A true economic collapse of the magnitude we saw in 2008 would be uncharted territory for crypto.

But here’s what the macro cycle indicators actually show: we’re currently at the same bottoming levels as after the Great Recession, not before it. The very indicators that would warn of an impending collapse are instead positioned at the levels that have historically marked the end of major economic contractions - including the deepest one in modern history.

Today I’ll walk through this evidence systematically. We’ll examine the business cycle positioning, the RSI bullish divergence that continues to build, and a leading indicator from copper miners that’s already signaling the reversal. I’ll also introduce a unique bottom indicator using the Bitcoin/Silver ratio that has fired at the exact bottom of every prior bear market - and just fired again.

Finally, I’ll address the short-term picture. While the macro setup points decisively higher, I see two possible paths from here - one where the correction has already ended, and one where we see a final leg down into the 60K range before the larger advance begins. I’ll show you exactly what to watch to determine which scenario is unfolding.

Given the urgency of this short-term monitoring, the altcoin structure analysis I mentioned at the end of last issue will be covered next time.

Today’s Topics

• The 2008 Question

• Leading Indicators

• A Unique Bottom Signal

• Short-Term Scenarios

• Key Levels to Watch

The 2008 Question

Business Cycle Positioning

Let’s start with the most important chart for addressing the recession concern directly.

This is the Copper/Gold ratio on the 2-month timeframe, going back to 1999. The yellow line marks the level that has consistently identified the deepest business cycle reversals over the past 25 years. Look at where these reversals occurred:

• Late 1990s/early 2000s

• 2003

• 2008-2009 (end of the Great Recession)

• 2015-2016

• 2020

• Now

The critical point here is the 2008-2009 touch. That wasn’t before the Great Recession - it was after. The business cycle indicator reached this bottoming level as the recession was ending, not as it was beginning. The same level that marked the conclusion of the worst economic contraction in modern history is where we sit today.

This isn’t a signal that warns of impending collapse. It’s a signal that has historically marked the point where economic contraction transitions to expansion. Every touch of this level has been followed by a significant advance in risk assets.

Stochastic RSI Confirmation

Adding the Stochastic RSI to this framework provides additional confirmation of where we stand.

The green circles at the bottom of the chart highlight the Stochastic RSI bottoming zones. Notice the pattern: these momentum troughs have aligned with the same business cycle bottoming levels we just examined.

What’s particularly notable is the similarity between the current Stochastic RSI signature and what we saw at the end of the Great Recession. Both periods show the indicator reaching deeply oversold territory and beginning to curl upward from extremes. This is the momentum reversal signature that precedes major business cycle turns.

We’re not seeing the kind of momentum profile that precedes economic collapse. We’re seeing the profile that follows it.

RSI Bullish Divergence

Now let’s examine what I consider one of the most compelling signals for the upcoming reversal - the bullish divergence building in the Copper/Gold ratio.

The yellow lines on both the price and RSI panels tell the story. As the Copper/Gold ratio has made lower lows, the RSI has made higher lows. This is textbook bullish divergence - a momentum reversal signal that warns of an impending trend change.

Study the historical instances marked on this chart. Every single bullish divergence period in the Copper/Gold ratio - including at the end of the Great Recession - was followed by a major reversal in the business cycle and consequently in risk assets.

But here’s what makes the current setup particularly compelling: the duration. The only time we’ve seen anything close to this prolonged a buildup of bullish divergence was around 2003. What followed was a monstrous multi-year advance.

The extended nature of this divergence isn’t a sign of weakness - it’s a sign of the magnitude of the reversal being loaded into the system. The longer the compression, the more powerful the release.

Leading Indicators

Copper Miners as a Leading Signal

If the Copper/Gold ratio is our primary business cycle indicator, copper miners serve as its leading signal. The logic is straightforward: mining equities discount future copper prices, meaning they tend to move before the underlying commodity.

This chart overlays COPX/Gold (copper miners relative to gold) with the Copper/Gold ratio itself, alongside Bitcoin for context. The green circles mark the key inflection points across cycles.

The pattern is consistent: COPX/Gold reverses before Copper/Gold does. It serves as an early warning system for business cycle turns.

Look at what’s happening now. COPX/Gold has already violently reversed from its lows. The leading indicator has turned. Based on the historical relationship, this implies the same reversal is coming for the actual Copper/Gold ratio - and with it, the business cycle inflection that has preceded every major Bitcoin advance.

COPX/Gold MACD Cross

To add precision to this leading signal, let’s examine the 6-week MACD of COPX/Gold.

The yellow arrows mark the key moments: October 2016, October 2020, and now October 2025. In each prior instance, the COPX/Gold MACD cross preceded a significant advance in Bitcoin.

The signal has just fired again. The leading MACD cross that preceded the 2017 and 2021 runs is now in place for the current cycle.

This doesn’t guarantee timing - the lag between the COPX/Gold signal and the actual Copper/Gold reversal can vary. But the directional implication is clear: the leading indicator is telling us the business cycle turn is approaching.

A Unique Bottom Signal

Bitcoin/Silver Ratio

I want to introduce a signal I haven’t discussed publicly in some time - one that has an uncanny track record of identifying bear market bottoms.

This is the 1-month RSI of the Bitcoin/Silver ratio. The yellow line marks the level that has consistently identified the exact bottoms of every prior bear market in Bitcoin’s history.

• 2011 bottom: RSI touched the line

• 2015 bottom: RSI touched the line

• 2018-2019 bottom: RSI touched the line

• 2022 bottom: RSI touched the line

• Now: RSI sitting right on that same line

The consistency is remarkable. This isn’t a level that gets touched frequently - it specifically marks the deepest points of market pessimism, where Bitcoin is most undervalued relative to silver as a competing store of value.

We’re sitting on that line right now. The same signal that fired at every prior bear market bottom has just fired again.

Now, I want to be clear about what this means in the current context. Most wouldn’t consider Bitcoin to be in a “bear market” since January 2025 - after all, we’re still above the levels from a year ago. But the wave structure analysis I’ll show next suggests we’ve been in a larger-degree correction since early 2025. The Bitcoin/Silver signal reaching this level is consistent with that correction nearing its end.

Short-Term Scenarios

While the macro indicators point decisively higher over the coming months and years, the short-term picture presents two possible paths. Let me walk through each scenario and what to watch for confirmation.

Scenario 1: Running Flat Complete

This chart shows my wave count since the 2022 bottom. The impulse from the lows completed a clear five-wave structure into early 2025, with the following characteristics:

• Wave (3) peaked the RSI - this is typical behavior where the strongest wave produces the highest momentum

• Wave (5) showed the first bearish divergence against wave (3) - again, typical for fifth waves

• What I’m labeling as a (B) wave showed the second bearish divergence

Remember that bear markets are simply larger-degree corrections. The structure since the wave (5) high suggests we’ve been in an A-B-C corrective pattern.

In this first scenario, the (C) wave has already completed, forming what’s called a running flat - where the C-wave terminates above the A-wave low. The Bitcoin/Silver ratio bottoming could be lining up with this correction nearing its end.

If this scenario is correct, the macro bullish continuation has already begun.

Scenario 2: Expanded Flat with Final Leg

The second scenario must also be considered. Here, the monthly candles are sitting right on the Bollinger Band basis, with RSI at the same level as before the breakdown from the bear flag that led to the second C-leg in the 2021-2022 correction.

In this case, the (C) wave has another leg down, forming an expanded flat similar to the 2021-2022 structure. The pink path shows what this would look like - a corrective backtest of the macro cup-and-handle neckline before the larger advance begins.

Target for this leg would be around the 60K level.

I want to be clear: this scenario doesn’t change the macro view. The business cycle indicators, the leading signals from copper miners, the Bitcoin/Silver bottom signal - all of these point to the same conclusion regardless of whether we see another short-term leg down. The path to get there would simply be more volatile.

Key Levels to Watch

This lower timeframe view shows both scenarios side by side with the key levels for confirmation.

Bullish Scenario (Left Panel): If the correction has ended, we’re currently in local parabolic accumulation. I’m watching for a break and sustained hold above 95K as the bullish breaker that confirms this path. A decisive move above this level with follow-through would signal the correction is complete and the next leg higher has begun.

Bearish Scenario (Right Panel): If the correction has another leg, a break below 87K will serve as confirmation and mark the start of the final C-leg down. Target would be around the 60K level.

Though this second scenario would arguably lead to widespread panic in the short term, refer back to the macro charts for context. A dip to 60K would be quickly forgotten once the macro bullish continuation to follow kicks in. It would represent a deeper shakeout before the move that the business cycle indicators are signaling - not a change in the ultimate destination.

Closing

The concern about a 2008-style crash is understandable given the uncertainty in global markets. But the data tells a clear story: we’re positioned at the same business cycle levels as after the Great Recession, not before it.

The evidence stacks up:

• Copper/Gold sitting on the bottoming line that has marked the end of every major economic contraction since 1999

• Stochastic RSI showing the same reversal signature as the end of the Great Recession

• Bullish divergence building to levels only seen once before - preceding a multi-year advance

• Copper miners already reversing, providing the leading signal for the business cycle turn

• COPX/Gold MACD cross firing at the same timing as October 2016 and October 2020

• Bitcoin/Silver bottom indicator at the exact level that has marked every prior bear market bottom

The macro direction is clear to me. The only question is the short-term path.

Watch 95K as the bullish breaker. Watch 87K as the bearish confirmation. One of these levels will break first, telling us which scenario is unfolding.

Either way, what lies on the other side of this consolidation is the business cycle reversal that has preceded every major advance in Bitcoin’s history. The signals are in place. The reversal is approaching.

Next issue, I’ll present the altcoin structure analysis across different token chart characters.

Today, as we close out the year, I want to take a holistic view of the market and establish the macro positioning for everything that has ever influenced crypto. We’ll stack all the signals together for the complete picture, drawing from history as data for what will probabilistically emerge from today’s setup in 2026.

The conclusion is straightforward: every major signal I track is positioned similarly to the second half of 2020 - the period that immediately preceded one of the most explosive moves in crypto history.

Today’s Topics

The Business Cycle Foundation

• The Clean Signal

• The Mini-Cycle Explained

Cross-Asset Validation

• Manufacturing Confirms

• Ethereum’s Structural Setup

• ETH/BTC: The Altcoin Ratio

• Russell 2000: Small Cap Stocks

Signal Convergence

• Bringing It All Together

• The Precious Confirmation

Looking Ahead

• What 2026 Holds

• Next Issue Preview

Read more

Today’s primary focus, however, isn’t on the short-term gyrations. It’s on something that will matter far more for your returns over the next 12-24 months: sector selection.

As I discussed last issue, the altcoin market is more congested and complex than ever before. Thousands of tokens compete for capital across dozens of narratives. In this environment, choosing the right sectors will separate those who capture substantial gains from those who watch the market rise while their holdings underperform.

I’ve spent considerable time constructing sector indices where none existed in TradingView over a long enough time horizon - selecting tokens with sufficient chart history to produce reliable reads. What emerged is a clear hierarchy of opportunity, from continuation plays in established sectors to deep-discount compression patterns in beaten-down categories.

This analysis will help you understand not just which sectors I believe offer the best risk-adjusted returns, but why the charts point to these conclusions. I’ll also present five sample portfolios across the risk spectrum, complete with specific token allocations, so you can position according to your own risk tolerance.

Today’s Topics

Market Update

• Ethereum

• Bitcoin

• Low Timeframe Structure

Sector Analysis

• Layer 1: The Continuation Play

• DeFi: Strength in Structure

• AI: High Risk, High Reward

• RWA: Compression Ready to Release

• DePIN: Deep Discounts, Deep Opportunity

Sample Portfolios

• Portfolio Construction Philosophy

• Five Portfolios Across the Risk Spectrum

Read more

Today, I want to crystallize the long-term view by bringing together all the top cyclical signals I’ve now spent years studying. After the timeline adjustments in Issue #82, some of you have understandably wanted more clarity on the macro picture. This issue is dedicated to providing exactly that - a comprehensive framework that explains not just where we’re going, but why the data points so clearly in that direction.

Today’s Topics

The Holy Grail Chart

• Seven Elements Explained

• Cycle Symmetry and Timing Implications

Trunk Confluence

• Remarkable Four-Year Tracking

• Mean Reversion Dynamics

The Liquidity Cycle

• Key Ratio Framework

• Business Cycle Alignment

• The Early 2023 Anomaly Explained

• Sub-Cycle Implications Through 2028

The Russell Signal

• Small Cap Structure and Expansion

• Business Cycle Correlation

• Altcoin Market Implications

Looking Ahead

• Sector Analysis Coming Next Issue

Read more

This isn’t capitulation to bearish sentiment. This is adaptation based on what the data is showing. I’ve always tried to give it to you straight, to share how I see it as the picture develops, and today requires exactly that kind of transparency.

The business cycle positioning remains unambiguously bullish for the macro picture. We’re at the bottom, not the top. Nothing about that fundamental read has changed. What has changed is my understanding of how we get from here to there over the next several months. The path appears more volatile in the near term than I previously projected.

I’m also launching major updates to the Portfolio Analyzer app today. The 2nd generation forecast model represents a complete overhaul of the prediction system, arriving at precisely the moment when understanding your portfolio’s trajectory through the upcoming volatility becomes most critical.

Given this adjustment to the short-term forecast, I’m temporarily shelving the trunk Local Top Meter until we’re past this near-term corrective move. In its place, I’m launching the Relief Rally Meter to track the probability of a local corrective high forming before the move down.

Today’s Topics

Market Update

• Business Cycle Signals: The Macro Foundation

• Ethereum’s Corrected Structure

• The AMZN Analog Realignment

• Wave Structure and Near-Term Projections

• Fib Confluence and Timing

• Bitcoin’s Extended Timeline

• The Trunk Remains, Volatility Increases

Portfolio Analyzer Updates

• New Forecast Model

• Relief Rally Meter

Market Update

Business Cycle Signals: The Macro Foundation

Let me start with what hasn’t changed: the business cycle signals that form the foundation of this entire analysis. These indicators continue pointing unambiguously higher for the macro picture.

This is one of our primary business cycle signals - the 2-month RSI of the Copper/Gold ratio. This tracks the manufacturing cycle, which in turn tracks global liquidity flow and risk appetite. As I’ve detailed extensively in previous issues, this framework has explained every phase of every crypto cycle.

The pattern is crystal clear. Tops occurred when this signal hit the upper line. Bear markets ended when the midline was hit. Note the short-term bounce in the signal after each midline hit. The pre-parabolic “ramp” phase - where we’ve been stuck for what feels like an eternity - runs as the signal trends down toward the bottom line.

This current descent to the bottom has been the largest distance to fall ever recorded, which has directly produced the largest ramp phase ever. We’re now finally positioned right near the bottom.

The macro points way up. This signal doesn’t lie, and it’s not ambiguous.

Another lens on the same fundamental dynamic is the business cycle viewed directly through Copper/Gold’s 2-month MACD - what I’ve called the “Holy Grail Chart.”

We’re near the inflection level and may finally be reversing. I encourage you to study the legend in the upper left carefully. It explains every attribute of every Bitcoin cycle with remarkable precision:

• Red bars at tops = USD price tops

• Blue signal tops = Impulse tops

• Red bar declines = Bear markets

• Green bars = Bull market ramp phase

• Red bar profile = Character of parabolic move

According to this framework, the parabolic move hasn’t even begun. We remain deep in the green bar ramp phase, grinding toward the inflection that will flip the bars red and initiate the acceleration everyone has been waiting for.

Again, the macro points way up. The business cycle is at the bottom, not the top.

This is the foundation. Everything that follows builds from this macro reality. The near-term volatility I’m about to detail doesn’t contradict this positioning - it’s a function of how markets actually traverse from business cycle troughs to peaks. The path is rarely smooth, especially in an environment this extended and compressed.

Ethereum’s Corrected Structure

Today I’m reversing the usual order. Ethereum is actually offering the clearest signal, in my opinion, as to what lies immediately ahead for the crypto market. We’ll start with ETH, then pivot to Bitcoin.

I previously shared this read on Ethereum against the Amazon analog, and something always bothered me about the alignment. The structural parallels were there, but the timing felt slightly off in ways I couldn’t quite articulate.

I’ve spent considerable time studying all aspects of this analog and how its forecast aligns with what other Bitcoin and Ethereum technicals have been telling me. I believe I’ve figured out the issue.

The AMZN Analog Realignment

The actual wave structure alignment is like this: we’re currently positioned halfway through the volatile yellow period that follows the longer prior volatile green period.

This adjustment changes the near-term projection significantly. The green zone in Amazon’s structure represented the initial recovery and volatile advance. The yellow zone represents a secondary volatile period - choppier, more prone to sharp reversals, but ultimately still advancing. Also known as a wave 1-2-1-2. More on this later.

Here’s how the full projection overlays when we correct for this structural understanding:

I’m expecting a short-lived counter-trend move up, followed by a short-lived C-leg type sharp move down, followed by rapid recovery. This isn’t a macro reversal. This is intra-yellow-zone volatility playing out exactly as the analog suggests it should.

The Amazon comparison shows a remarkably similar structure in its yellow period - a bounce to retest resistance, followed by a sharp but brief decline, then resumption of the larger advance. That’s the template we’re following.

When I study the RSI carefully, the alignment becomes even more compelling. The correlation is uncanny.

The green zone was a nearly perfect RSI match - down to single RSI units in terms of precision. Ethereum didn’t extend quite as high into the yellow zone as Amazon did at this stage, but it’s now decidedly on its way down in terms of momentum.

We’re approaching the point where there’s high probability of a bounce to a local corrective high before the yellow zone move completes with RSI approaching the level where it bottomed during the green zone.

The consistency here isn’t coincidental. We’re seeing the same behavioral patterns play out at similar structural positions, which gives me confidence in projecting forward.

Fib Confluence and Timing

Let’s zoom in to examine the specific tools those interested in timing these moves can use for tactical positioning.

The retracements to 0.618 have been remarkably consistent throughout this structure. Based on the analog and the current positioning, I’m expecting:

Counter-trend corrective high: Approximately $4,000-4,200, with RSI climbing to around 55

Subsequent C-leg down: To approximately $2,000-2,200, with RSI declining to around 30

Timeline: Corrective high likely by late December/early January, low in Q1 2026

The 0.618 retracement has been the consistent level where bounces exhaust throughout this pattern. The 0.382 level has marked the lows.

Even the substructural consistency within the yellow zone advance reinforces this read.

Note the nearly identical impulsive structure in the leg up within the yellow zone. The wave character, the momentum profile, even the specific subwave relationships show remarkable consistency between the Amazon analog and Ethereum’s current behavior.

This granular level of alignment gives me confidence that the analog remains valid and useful for projection. We’re not just seeing vague similarity - we’re seeing specific structural repetition at multiple degrees.

And it is impulsive. Here’s how I read the nested wave 1-2 structure and sub-ABC formations:

The structure breaks down into clear impulses and corrections at multiple degrees. The current positioning suggests we’re in a B-wave of a larger corrective sequence before the C-leg down completes the pattern.

This matters because B-waves often produce the most frustrating price action - counter-trend moves that feel like reversals but are actually just volatility within a larger correction. That’s what I believe the bounce to $4,000-4,200 will represent.

Zoom out slightly and you see the larger 1-2-1-2 structure I read as building:

This nested structure means that a wave 3 of wave 3 comes after this short move down. And recall that I read the current macro positioning as already being within a wave 3, which would technically make the upcoming advance a wave 3 of 3 of 3.

Bitcoin’s Extended Timeline

Now let’s examine the Bitcoin implications of this Ethereum analysis. The trunk analog I’ve been tracking shows how I see the sharp drop ahead playing out, followed by the longer-term advance.

This represents a significant adjustment to my timeline, and I don’t take modifications like this lightly. Here are my updated projections:

$100,000-110,000 by end of 2025 (corrective high)

$85,000-95,000 in Q1 2026 (corrective low)

$150,000 by H2 2026

$180,000 by H2 2027

$300,000 in 2028

Yes, my entire outlook has extended even further into the future. This is what all the data is telling me. The business cycle’s extended bottoming process has stretched the timeline for the entire advance. What I previously thought might occur in 2026 is now pushed to 2027-2028.

The macro-level story hasn’t changed: we have way further up to go. The monthly volatility is just likely to be more turbulent in the near term on this even slower path to get there.

Who should care about this adjustment? It depends on your approach:

Long-term holders and cycle swing traders shouldn’t be particularly concerned. The destination remains the same, just with a more extended journey.

Sub-cycle swing traders absolutely need to pay attention. The near-term volatility represents both risk and opportunity depending on positioning and execution.

The Trunk Remains, Volatility Increases

The trunk structure itself remains intact. What’s changing is my understanding of the volatility profile within that trunk - specifically, that we’re about to experience a sharp corrective wave before the next major leg higher.

Finally, let’s overlay the NASDAQ analog with this updated read to see how they align:

The overlay shows Bitcoin following the trunk trajectory but with considerably more volatility - especially overshoots above the NASDAQ trunk path followed by consistent reversions back to it.

The upcoming corrective move would represent one of these reversions to the trunk after the recent overshoot.

The business cycle foundation hasn’t changed. The trunk structure hasn’t changed. What’s changed is my understanding of the near-term path we’ll take within that larger framework.

Portfolio Analyzer Updates

Now let me turn to the Portfolio Analyzer updates that make this issue particularly actionable. The timing of these improvements couldn’t be better given the volatility ahead.

The Portfolio Analyzer is available at app.techdev52.com for all subscribers. If you haven’t accessed it yet, simply visit the site and follow the setup instructions to begin tracking your holdings and using the available tools.

For existing users, these updates go live today and will be immediately visible when you refresh the application.

New Forecast Model 🔮

The centerpiece of this update is the complete overhaul of the portfolio forecasting system. The previous generation had clear limitations I wasn’t comfortable with as the market enters this trunk-like phase.

Trunk-Based and Adaptive Pattern Recognition: The system now analyzes your portfolio’s historical behavior against the expected trunk structure of the overall market. The algorithm automatically adjusts its approach based on the available data and prior character of the portfolio.

How It Works: The forecast projects your portfolio’s potential path from November 2025 through the end of 2028, providing a general trend to monitor. This forecast offers a general trend. Individual assets will experience volatile deviations above and below the projected path, but each should revert toward the mean trajectory over time. Think of it as a central tendency rather than a precise prediction.

Current Forecast Implications: Given the near-term correction I’m anticipating, you should see the forecast model showing increased downside risk in the Q4 2025/Q1 2026 timeframe, followed by strong recovery and continuation into 2026-2027 and beyond.

Relief Rally Meter ⚡

Alongside the forecast overhaul, I’m introducing a new market timing indicator specifically designed for the current environment.

The Relief Rally Meter specifically tracks the counter-trend bounce I’m expecting into year-end. As that bounce develops and Ethereum climbs toward the $4,000-4,200 zone with RSI around 55, the meter should reach high readings (90+) signaling it’s time to de-risk or at minimum avoid adding exposure.

Reading the Meter:

0-30 (Blue/Green): Low readings suggest continuation potential. The market has room to run higher before exhaustion.

30-70 (Yellow/Orange): Mid-range readings indicate caution. Monitor other signals before making positioning decisions.

70-100 (Red): High readings warn of elevated correction risk. When the meter reaches 90+, probability of a near-term top increases substantially.

After the subsequent correction completes in Q1 2026, I’ll be reintroducing the trunk local top meter for the longer-term advance that follows.

In general I plan to swap out tools as they become contextually useful.

Why Ethereum as the Signal Source:

As I’ve explained in previous issues, Ethereum occupies a crucial position in the crypto market structure. It bridges Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market - less stable than BTC but more stable than most alts, making it an excellent gauge for overall risk appetite.

When ETH momentum reaches extremes, altcoins typically follow within days or weeks. This leading characteristic makes it the ideal input for a timing indicator designed to help manage altcoin-heavy portfolios.

Coming Soon

Two additional indicators remain in development with substantial progress:

Business Cycle Tracker: Will visualize the 2-month MACD histogram of Copper/Gold directly within your portfolio view, providing real-time context for how your holdings are positioned relative to the macro cycle. This will make the “Holy Grail Chart” accessible without leaving the portfolio application.

Local Top Meter: Will return once we’re past the near-term correction, providing the 2-week RSI-based signals for identifying local extremes during the trunk advance. This will essentially be the system I detailed in Issue #81, fully integrated into the portfolio interface.

Closing

Let me be direct about what today’s analysis means for positioning and outlook.

The Macro Foundation Is Intact:

The business cycle signals remain unambiguously bullish. We’re at the bottom, not the top. The 2-month RSI of Copper/Gold and the 2-month MACD both show positioning consistent with imminent macro inflection. Nothing about the fundamental setup has deteriorated.

The Near-Term Path Has Adjusted:

Based on the corrected Ethereum-Amazon analog alignment and the wave structure analysis, I now expect a sharp but brief corrective move before the next major leg higher. This isn’t a trend change - it’s volatility within an ongoing trunk structure.

The Timeline Has Extended:

The business cycle’s unprecedented slow-motion bottoming process has stretched the timeline for the entire advance. Major targets I previously projected for 2026 are now pushed to 2027-2028. The destination hasn’t changed, but the journey is taking longer.

For different market participants, this adjustment has different implications:

• Long-term holders: Stay the course. The macro setup remains compelling. Near-term volatility doesn’t change the fundamental trajectory.

• Cycle swing traders: The correction into Q1 2026 represents a strategic reaccumulation opportunity before the major advance into 2027-2028.

• Sub-cycle swing traders: The Relief Rally Meter provides the tactical signals I hope will be helpful in navigating the near-term volatility.

Stay focused on the data. Ignore the noise. Adapt when the evidence demands it.

Next issue, I’ll revisit these projections in light of how the counter-trend bounce develops and provide updated guidance on positioning for the correction that should follow.

What we’re witnessing isn’t the clean parabolic structure many expect from crypto cycles, but rather a grinding, choppy advance that feels uncertain in the moment yet maintains its upward trajectory over time.

Today’s analysis focuses on delivering what I promised last issue: a concrete framework for identifying local tops and bottoms within this trunk structure, and a completely revised exit strategy designed specifically for navigating extended wave 3 movements in slow business cycle environments.

The business cycle remains our North Star, and its positioning continues to tell the same story it’s been telling for months: we’re at the bottom, not the top. The extended timeline that has characterized this cycle isn’t changing that fundamental reality - it’s merely stretching the timeframe over which it unfolds.

I’ve spent considerable time refining the local top identification system, testing it against historical data, and ensuring it provides actionable signals rather than adding to the noise. What I’m presenting today represents a straightforward approach that balances simplicity with effectiveness.

Additionally, the Portfolio Analyzer has undergone significant structural improvements. While some features have been temporarily removed for refinement, what’s been added - particularly the Local Top Meter - provides immediate value for position management.

Today’s Topics

Bitcoin

• Business Cycle: The North Star Unchanged

• Bullish Divergence at Historic Extremes

• Gold’s Cycle Alignment

• The Nested Cup-and-Handle Structure

• Ultra-Low Timeframe Projections

Ethereum

• The Trunk Develops

• ETH-AMZN Analog Continues

• Local Top Identification Framework

• RSI Zones for Tactical Trading

Exit Strategy

• Two Camps, Two Approaches

• Camp 2: Trading the Trunk

• Implementation Guidelines

Portfolio Analyzer »

• Local Top Meter Launch

• Forecast System Redesign

• Coming Soon Features

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Despite the delay, I wanted to provide a quick snapshot showing that the market continues to unfold precisely as the “trunk up” thesis from Issue #80 anticipated.

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I’ve been in this market long enough to recognize a pattern: attempts to leverage all the way up the cycle are never permitted by market makers. These severe liquidation events, particularly when they occur with the business cycle positioned as it is now, have historically preceded major legs higher. The clearing of overleveraged positions creates the foundation for sustainable moves.

The past three weeks, I’ve been deep in research, studying every angle of what’s unfolding. This work has forced me to reevaluate my expectations and bring them into sharper alignment with what the business cycle continues to tell us: things are painfully slow and steady.

I now believe we’re in the middle of what I’m calling a “trunk up” run for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader crypto market. Not the clean parabolic moves of previous cycles, but something choppier, more grinding, more frustrating to trade - yet ultimately just as rewarding for those positioned correctly.

Today’s goal is simplicity and focus. I’m laying out my best assessment of how the next year unfolds, abandoning the multi-scenario framework in favor of clarity. The research of recent weeks has caused me to reconsider the portfolio analyzer updates and completely overhaul my exit strategy. These are arguably the two most important pieces of actionable content I provide, and I want to get them right.

This issue establishes the foundation - the “trunking” thesis and why the frameworks point to it. Next issue, I’ll deliver the promised portfolio analyzer overhaul and revised exit strategy built specifically for navigating this type of market structure.

Today's topics

Bitcoin

• Business Cycle: Still the North Star

• Global Risk Index: The 2015-2017 Parallel

• The NASDAQ Analog and Trunk Structure

Ethereum

• The October 2020 Temptation

• Why the AMZN Analog is More Relevant

• Wave 3 Isn’t as Fun as You Think

The Path Forward

• Two Camps, Two Approaches

• What’s Coming Next Issue

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This framework builds on the macro components we've been tracking, combining them in a way that reveals consistent patterns across Bitcoin's entire history. The timing of current developments - particularly the seasonality we're observing - provides important context for positioning in the months ahead.

For altcoins, the high-timeframe charts are beginning to show the structural developments we've been anticipating. The positioning across major indices suggests we're at an important juncture, though one that continues to unfold on the extended timeline that has defined this cycle.

Today's topics

• Bitcoin

  • The Global Risk Index Framework

  • Actionable Indicator

  • Distance Metrics and Timing Projections

• Altcoins

  • TOTAL2 Macro Expansion

  • TOTAL3's Four-Year Breakout

  • Structural Considerations

  • Upcoming Portfolio Analyzer Updates

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What's particularly noteworthy is how Ethereum's current structure mirrors this same point in 2020 almost perfectly - exactly where the business cycle indicators suggest we should be. This confluence, combined with the continuing NASDAQ analog, provides a comprehensive picture of where we stand and what's likely ahead.

The paths diverge based on how quickly the business cycle indicators reach their historical topping zones. History shows us two precedents: the rapid surge of 2021 and the measured progression of 2017. Both are possible from here, and I'll explain what to watch for to determine which is unfolding.

Today's topics

Market Update

• The NASDAQ Analog and Market Structure

• Enhanced Business Cycle Framework

• Ethereum's Structural Confirmation

• Path 1: The Accelerated Scenario

• Path 2: The Measured Scenario

• Determining Which Path We're On

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The convergence we're witnessing between the business cycle and global liquidity isn't just another correlation to track. It's the fundamental engine that explains why Bitcoin does what it does, when it does it. The signals are now aligning in a way that's occurred only three other times before in Bitcoin's history - each time preceding the most explosive moves.

Today's deep dive will exclusively reveal the underlying mechanics of what I call the "Holy Grail" Bitcoin chart - a framework that explains not just price movements, but the entire structural evolution of each cycle. From the double-pump of 2013 to the rounded top of 2021, every nuance has been dictated by these underlying forces. Understanding them transforms market noise into readable signals.

I've also completed a comprehensive update of 38 token targets using the Portfolio Analyzer framework, bringing complete alignment between individual projections and portfolio-level analysis.

Today's topics

Market Update

• The Business-Liquidity Symphony

• When Correlation Becomes Causation

• The Credit Infusion Signal

• Weekly Divergence at Historic Extremes

• The Holy Grail Framework Revealed

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This concept of nested structures isn't just academic - it's a practical tool that allows us to make more asset-specific projections using the actual price history and behavioral patterns of individual tokens. Each cryptocurrency tends to exhibit consistent structural signatures across timeframes, and recognizing these can transform vague directional bias into specific price and timing targets.

For those using the Portfolio Analyzer web app at app.techdev52.com, understanding these nested structures becomes particularly valuable when the portfolio forecasting feature needs fine-tuning for your specific holdings. Today's analysis will equip you with the framework to identify and leverage these patterns yourself.

Today's topics

Bitcoin

• Cups-and-Handles

• Confluence Through Nested Structures

Altcoins

• VELO: Textbook Nested Impulses

• TEL: Compression Across Timeframes

• DOGE: Parabolic Structure Repetition

• SOL Update: New Targets

• Portfolio Analyzer Forecasting Update

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