What it is

The Gem Score is a 1 to 100 rating applied to every coin that survives a hard screening funnel, rebuilt from scratch for every issue. It is not a feeling about a chart and it is not a list of tickers I happen to like. Every point in every score traces to measurable data, which means the scores can be compared, tracked, and held accountable issue after issue.

Each name is scored across five weighted components. Divergence, worth 30 points, is the heart of the system - social attention building while price has not yet rerated, which is the entire premise of a hidden gem. Momentum, worth 25, measures how fast that attention is compounding against the coin’s own baseline rather than against the market’s noise. Breadth, worth 20, counts independent voices instead of raw posts, and it is where bot spam and single-whale engagement spikes go to die. Conviction, worth 15, reads the quality of sentiment, whether it is improving off its base and whether it holds through red days. And Tailwind, worth 10, ties each name into the sector rotation framework this newsletter already runs, so the board and the macro work stay one system.

How it is built

The funnel starts wide and ends narrow. More than 5,000 socially tracked assets get screened across eight sector lenses. Eligibility gates then remove everything that cannot honestly be called investable, meaning minimums on market cap, daily volume, and trading history, and no pure meme spam. The survivors get a month of social and price history pulled and scored, and the finalists are then verified on X itself: independent mention counts, plus a manual check of the actual accounts driving each move, their age and their reach, because a crowd of real accounts means something entirely different than a paid chorus. Where a project pays people to post, I say so. And when a coin’s social data is not trustworthy, the name is excluded and the exclusion is published rather than papered over. The debut board already did this once.

The system is also built to say no. A coin that already ran takes an automatic haircut, because a gem you are hearing about after a 36% week is no longer hidden. Spam-heavy tape gets penalized, and manufactured-looking engagement gets flagged in the open. On the debut board, seventeen names carried scores, three cleared the noise line, and fourteen did not, and that cliff is the point. The board says no fourteen times so that its yeses carry weight.

How to read the number

Scores map to bands: below 40 is noise, 40 to 54 is watchlist, 55 to 69 is candidate, 70 to 84 is a strong setup, 85 to 94 is exceptional, and 95 and above is reserved for the rare case where every component peaks at once, something I expect to see about once a cycle. The top score on the debut board is a 72.8, and that restraint is deliberate. When this board eventually prints a 90, I want the number to mean something, and the only way a number earns meaning is by refusing to inflate it.

What subscribers get

The full board is available to paid subscribers: every scored name, the component breakdowns behind each number, and the detailed write-ups on the top setups, including what the flags mean and what would strengthen or kill each one. From the next issue onward the board reruns with every score’s change printed, up or down, so the system builds its track record in public and you can judge for yourself whether it deserves your attention. Soon I intend for it to live as a standing page on techdev52.com that refreshes on the newsletter’s cadence.

The debut board is below.

Read more

Today’s topics

The Majors

• Ethereum: The Recovery to the Line

• Bitcoin: Exiting the Box

The Roadmaps

• The Paths Through 2027

• The Confirmation Signal: One Green Flip

The Engine

• H2 2020, Not Late 2018

The Alt Ratio

• ETH/BTC: Confluence with the Engine

The Gem Score

• The Methodology

• The Board

• The Top Three

• Sector Tailwinds

Closing

The Majors

Ethereum: The Recovery to the Line

Start with the structure we have been tracking for months, because it has done everything asked of it. The chart below compares the current leg against the analogous structure nested earlier in the same corrective fractal, with the orange overlay marking the analog we have followed since spring.

Back in May, in Issue #95, this fractal called for a final leg down from roughly $2,100 into the $1400 to $1600 band, and Ethereum printed $1505 on June 6, dead in the zone. The same work called for the recovery that would follow, and that recovery has now played out as well, which brings us to the line that matters. Price is pressing the green downtrend diagonal for the fourth time, and a diagonal this mature, tested this many times, is exactly where I expect the final consolidation of a recovery to form before the breakout comes. My read from here is a pause against the line, some backing and filling while the structure gathers itself, and then the break that opens the path toward the $2800 to $3400 zone, the first waypoint on the roadmap we will get to in a moment.

Bitcoin: Exiting the Box

Bitcoin has been running the same playbook one step behind, and the chart below shows it against the same Ethereum fractal reference we used to project it.

In May the call was a breakdown from the high 70Ks into the $57K to $63K box, and Bitcoin printed $59K on June 5, inside the band, before turning. It has now nearly exited the bottoming phase entirely. Notice that Bitcoin is lagging Ethereum through this recovery, and understand that the lag is not a defect in the thesis. It is the thesis. It is the sequencing I have been positioning for all year, and it is precisely why ETH/BTC is outperforming, a point the ratio section will make structural shortly. From here I expect Bitcoin to surge into the low 70Ks and spend some time consolidating there, digest that move through another small consolidation, and then push into the 80Ks on the expansion that follows.

The Roadmaps

The Paths Through 2027

Now zoom all the way out, because this is the part I want you to sit with. The two charts below are the year-long roadmaps for Ethereum and Bitcoin that I introduced in Issue #95, drawn at the end of May while the final leg down was still unfinished. The pink paths have not been modified since. I have not redrawn them, I have not shifted a waypoint, and I do not intend to while the market keeps honoring them.

We bottomed where expected and when expected. Ethereum terminated in the $1400 to $1600 band in the end-of-June window the path called for, and Bitcoin did the same in $57K to $63K. The forward waypoints therefore stand exactly as drawn. For Ethereum, $2800 to $3400 in the September to October window, $4500 to $5000 into December and January, and $6000 to $6500 through the May to July stretch of 2027. For Bitcoin, $94K to $98K in September to October, $115K to $125K into December and January, and $140K to $160K by the middle of 2027. As I said when I drew them, this remains the conservative case, conditioned on the business cycle’s impulse running its historical ten to twelve months once it begins. When the market does exactly what the map said it would do, the correct response is not to redraw the map.

The Confirmation Signal: One Green Flip

So the bottom is in, in my strong opinion. But I want to be precise about the difference between conviction and confirmation, because you should know exactly what would graduate this call from one to the other, and it is sitting on the roadmap charts above. The signal is the 3-day Supertrend.

The 3-day Supertrend is the cleanest mid-timeframe trend filter I track. It does not catch exact lows, and it is not trying to. What it does is confirm that a trend has genuinely changed character, and its record at cycle turning points is what earns it this job: the late-2022 bear market bottom was confirmed by exactly this signal flipping green, well before most participants believed the turn was real. Both majors are still carrying red Supertrends from the correction, with the flip currently sitting at roughly $2,020 on Ethereum and roughly $71.4K on Bitcoin, and those levels will keep walking down toward price with every 3-day bar that passes. When those flips print green, and I anticipate they will on the strength that follows the consolidations described above, the bottom moves from strongly suggested to confirmed, and a few things in my own process unlock along with it. One of them is waiting for you in the closing.

The Engine

H2 2020, Not Late 2018

Underneath all of it, as always, is the business cycle, and this issue’s look at it is the most important context in the letter. Consider the chart below, the two-month copper over gold ratio multiplied by Chinese bank loan magnitude, the liquidity-weighted read of the global cycle that has framed this newsletter’s entire macro thesis.

Recall the structure, because it has held for over a decade. The composite rounds over from its top in the yellow arcs, declines into the rising diagonal, resets against it at the green dots, and then elevates toward the orange points, and that elevation phase is what has coincided with the parabolic portion of every crypto cycle in this dataset. This is the primary reason I believe we have been inside one long macro cycle since 2021 rather than a completed cycle and a fresh one. Each cycle has rhymed with its predecessor, each has run on a slower clock than the one before it, and this reset took roughly two to three times longer to reach the diagonal than either of the prior two. That dilation is the whole story of the last three years. It is why the in-between felt endless, and it is why so many people gave up on the framework right before it resolved.

The resolution is now on the chart. The composite has reset to the diagonal, printed the green dot, and turned up off the line, and the parabolic portion of the crypto cycle has historically begun from just about where we are sitting now, as the line elevates away from the green dot and climbs toward the orange. And this is the read I want you to internalize, because it changes how you should be positioned emotionally as much as financially: on this chart, our position looks far more like the second half of 2020 than the end of 2018. The bottom is behind us, the elevation is beginning, and the impulse is ahead. For those who want to watch it live rather than wait two weeks for my next update, I am including access to the live business cycle chart here, available to members:

Live TradingView chart links are for paid subscribers.

View Live TradingView Link

The Alt Ratio

ETH/BTC: Confluence with the Engine

If the engine says second half of 2020, the ratio chart says it louder, and if you take one thing from this issue, take this chart.

Read it carefully. The yellow diagonal downtrend lines defined the long decline. Beneath them the ratio carved out a flag, retraced down to the 0.382, and held it, and it is now pressing the upper boundary of that flag while the MACD in the lower panel rises and curls off the bottom, getting ready to send it positive. Now look left at the last cycle, because this is not a loose resemblance. The identical sequence printed in the second half of 2020, the same diagonals, the same flag, the same 0.382 hold, the same MACD curl, and the business cycle sat in the identical position beneath it while it happened. Two independent methods stamping the same date on our position is exactly the kind of agreement this newsletter is built to find. Last issue’s timing work pointed the rotation window toward September, and the flag is now pressing that timeline from below.

The trigger from here is unambiguous. A confirmed breakout of this flag confirms, for me, a huge leg higher in ETH/BTC, the leg that targets the purple resistance at the old highs near 0.08, and a rising ETH/BTC does not lift Ethereum alone. It is the market saying it is finally willing to move out of Bitcoin and down into risk again, and it pulls the whole curve behind it. The flag has not broken yet, and I am not front-running the trigger with the broad basket. But everything about this setup says the market is loading the same spring it loaded six years ago, which makes this the right moment to look underneath the majors at where the attention is already moving.

The Gem Score

The Methodology

I promised in Issue #96 that once the low was in hand I would take the token work sector by sector. Today I am delivering it, but not as a list of charts I happen to like. I have built a scoring system for it, the Gem Score, designed to answer one question in a repeatable way: where is real attention arriving before price has rerated? It debuts in this issue, it will be rerun and republished with every issue going forward with the score changes tracked, and over time I intend for it to live as a standing page that refreshes on the newsletter’s cadence. For now it prints here.

The funnel works like this. The full social-tracked universe, more than 5,000 assets, gets screened across eight sector lenses. Eligibility gates then remove everything that cannot honestly be called an investable gem, which means a minimum $25M market cap, a minimum $1M in daily volume, at least 90 days of trading history, and no pure meme spam. Eighteen candidates survived this issue’s screen. Each one was then scored across five weighted components.

• Divergence, worth 30 points, measures attention building while price has not yet moved, which is the entire premise of a hidden gem.

• Momentum, worth 25, measures the rate and acceleration of that attention against the coin’s own baseline.

• Breadth, worth 20, counts independent voices, unique accounts rather than raw post counts, and punishes bot spam and single-whale engagement spikes.

• Conviction, worth 15, reads the quality of sentiment, whether it is improving off its base and whether it holds through red days.

• Tailwind, worth 10, scores alignment with the sector rotation framework you already know from these pages.

Guardrails cut across all of it: a coin that has already pumped takes a Divergence haircut, spam-heavy tape takes a Breadth penalty, and manipulated-looking engagement gets flagged outright.

Two things I want to be upfront about, because a scoring system is only as credible as what it discloses. First, every finalist was cross-verified on X itself, with independent mention counts and a manual check of the actual accounts driving each move, their age, their reach, and whether they are real participants or a paid chorus. Second, one name was excluded for data quality. Celestia’s social feed is contaminated by unrelated content that shares its name, its score would have been untrustworthy, and rather than publish a bad number I am publishing the exclusion. Seventeen names carry scores this issue. The bands are simple:

• Below 40 is noise

• 40 to 54 is watchlist

• 55 to 69 is candidate

• 70 to 84 is a strong setup

• 85 to 94 is exceptional

• 95 and above is reserved for the rare case where every component peaks at once. I expect to hand out a 95 about once a cycle.

The top score this issue is a 72.8, and that calibration is deliberate. When this board eventually prints a 90, I want the number to mean something.

The Board

The Gem Score board is for paid subscribers.
Seventeen names carry scores this issue. Three cleared the noise line, and one printed the strongest early-attention signature of the debut. Paid members get the full ranked board, the name-by-name breakdowns behind every score, and the re-run each issue with changes tracked, so the system builds its record in public.

Unlock the Gem Board

Closing

So here is the whole picture. The majors bottomed where and when the roadmap said they would, the recovery is pressing its first real resistance on both charts, and the paths through 2027 stand exactly as they were drawn in Issue #95, with $2800 to $3400 on Ethereum and $94K to $98K on Bitcoin still the September to October waypoints. One signal separates conviction from confirmation, the 3-day Supertrend flipping green on both majors, the same signal that confirmed the late-2022 bottom, and the flips are walking down toward price as I write. Beneath it all, the engine and the monthly ratio agree that this is a second-half-2020 position, with the flag pressing its boundary and the MACD curling underneath it, and the breakout of that flag, whenever it prints, is the green light for the broad rotation.

My posture has not changed since Issue #96. I am long the majors through the consolidations, I am patient, and I am not yet in the broad alt basket, because that trigger belongs to the ratio flag. The Gem Score board is how I will hunt the narrow opportunities in the meantime, three names this issue, one strong, one flagged, and one waiting for its retrace, and every score reruns next issue with the changes printed, so the system earns your trust, or loses it, in public. And one promise made concrete: the portfolio forecaster overhaul I have owed you arrives once the bottom confirmation is in, tied to the same Supertrend flips described above, so the rebuilt forecaster launches on a confirmed foundation rather than a hopeful one. Last issue ended with the words we are close. We are one flip closer now.

So I am going to do something different with this issue. I am not going to re-litigate the low. Last issue did that, the structure has not changed, and redrawing the same flags one more time is not worth your inbox. The question that pays from here is not whether the rotation is coming. The question is exactly when it triggers and what leads it when it does, and almost nobody is doing the work on either one.

Two pieces answer those two questions. The first is a time-aligned read of the ETH/BTC ratio that puts an actual date on the rotation rather than a vibe. The second is the dispersion and rate-of-change tape underneath the market, which is already naming what is turning while the screens still show one red block.

Today’s topics

The Consensus

• The Bottom and the Engine

The Clock

• The Ratio Fractal: Putting a Date on the Rotation

The Tape Underneath

• Dispersion: The Menu Is Spreading

• Rate of Change: The First Mover Nobody Is Watching

Closing

• The Clock, the Menu, and What to Do Now

Read more

I want to keep the focus tight. The short-term picture first, where the breakdown has played out into the bands and the low looks to be in. Then the engine, because the business cycle is why I trust this as the low and not a pause before something deeper. Then the altcoin setup at the top-down level, the part I have been building toward, where one idea matters above the rest: the ETH over BTC ratio and Bitcoin dominance are both setting up the way they did in 2020, right before the last rotation into alts. I am not going coin by coin yet. The token setups and the forecaster overhaul both belong on a confirmed low, not a bounce, so those wait for next issue. Today is the map.

Today’s topics

Short-Term

• Ethereum: The Second-Flag Breakdown, Complete

• Bitcoin: The Deeper Retrace, and the Low Likely In

The Engine

• The Liquidity Composite and the Spike-Off

The Alt-Market Setup

• The ETH/BTC Ratio: The 2020 Analog

• Bitcoin Dominance: The Top Repeats

• Sectors: The Market Is Not Monolithic

Closing

• Sequencing and What Comes Next

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I want to be clear about the sequencing up front, because it matters for how you read everything that follows. The final sub-leg lower is not finished yet. I still expect ETH and BTC to terminate this move lower, and as you will see in the short-term charts, I have refined the timing on that bottom.

So the roadmap I am drawing is anchored on a bottom that is still a few weeks out. That is by design. The whole point of waiting was to build this path against the structure as it confirms rather than rushing it while the breakdown was still in its early stages. We are now close enough to the bottom, with enough confirmation behind us, that I am comfortable committing to the year ahead.

Underpinning all of it is the business cycle, and I want to be honest and transparent about where my thesis carries genuine uncertainty there. So today we will move through the short-term picture, then the engine driving everything, then the two roadmaps themselves.

Today’s topics

Short-Term Updates

• Ethereum: The Second-Flag Breakdown, Unchanged

• The Swing Failure Detour: A Low-Timeframe Refinement

• Bitcoin: The Double Bottom

The Engine

• The Business Cycle and the Question of the Red Zone

The Year-Long Roadmap

• Ethereum into 2027: The Amazon Backdrop

• Bitcoin into 2027: The Cup and Handle to Six Figures

Closing

• What’s Next: Altcoins, the Ratio, and the Forecaster

Read more

Today’s issue is going to stay focused on those two confirmations and the precision they give us. There is no need to rebuild the structural thesis from scratch, the work in recent issues already did that. What I want to do here is update the final sub-leg targets now that the breakdown is in motion, then walk through three different lenses on the business cycle turn so the macro context is locked in before the next issue. Because next issue, with the business cycle finally cooperating, I am going to do what I have been promising: lay out a fresh, specific roadmap for the next year for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. I want the next two weeks to plot it carefully against the latest data.

Today’s topics

Ethereum

• The Bear Flag Breakdown Confirms

• Refined Target: 1.272 Fib Extension at $1400-1600

Bitcoin

• Same Structure, Different Retrace

• Refined Target: Trend-Based Extension at $57K-$63K

The Macro Turn

• 2M MACD: The Strongest Business Cycle Signal

• 2M RSI: Same Story, Told Differently

• 2M Composite: The Liquidity-Adjusted Version

Closing

• The Bridge to Next Issue’s Roadmap

Read more

In the meantime, today’s issue is a short, focused interlude. There is one piece of structural analysis on Ethereum that I have not yet shared in this level of detail, and it is one that I think captures everything I have been pounding the table about for months. It is a structure within a structure within a structure, a nested fractal that not only supports the projection of one more sub-leg down but also pre-defines the rapid V-shaped recovery I expect to follow. And once you see it, you can start to lay out a clean two-trade roadmap that, in my view, conservatively offers a 10x return on trading capital by the end of the year, before the parabolic phase of the macro cycle has even begun.

This is the trade picture I have been working toward for months. The window is finally opening.

Today’s topics

Ethereum

• Structure Within a Structure Within a Structure

• The Final Leg to $1400-$1600

The Two-Trade Path to 10x

• ETHD: The Conservative Re-Entry (2.5x)

• ETHU: The V-Bottom Long (4.5x)

• The Compounded Math

Closing

• Confirmation Watch & What Comes Next

Read more

Today’s issue is a focused short-term update. I’m going to walk through the extended consolidation in both BTC and ETH, explain why I believe a breakdown is ahead despite the drawn-out timeline, review the outcome of both trades from Issue #91, and lay out one more aggressive pair of setups to capture this final move.

We’ll close with a quick look at the business cycle, which - after years of grinding along the bottom - may finally be showing signs of a decisive turn. Next issue, assuming the final leg is underway, I plan to shift gears entirely and publish a comprehensive macro piece covering long-term targets for both Bitcoin and altcoins as we position for the cycle’s real move higher.

Today’s topics

Bitcoin

• Extended Consolidation: The 2022 Analog Still Holds

Ethereum

• Same Structure, Same Story

Trade Review & New Setups

• BITI: Stopped Out, Re-Entering Aggressive

• ETHD: Stopped Out Again, One More At-Bat

Business Cycle

• The Turn May Finally Be Here

Read more

Today, we’ll walk through the fine details of how this final leg is unfolding for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, review the trade ideas shared in Issue #90 and their outcomes, introduce a new Ethereum trade setup, and then zoom all the way out to the business cycle picture that underpins this entire thesis.

Today’s topics

Bitcoin

• Flag Confluence: Defining the Final Target

Ethereum

• Dual Confluence for ETH’s Target

Trade Review

• BITI: Surviving the Squeeze

• ETHD: Stopped Out and Re-Entering

Business Cycle

• The Longest Bottom in History

• A Bullish Divergence Unlike Anything We’ve Seen

Read more

Today’s issue is going to be a focused, tactical update. Rather than a broad macro deep dive, I want to zero in on the short-term structure, show you exactly why I believe this final push lower is imminent, and lay out two specific trade setups for those looking to capitalize on it. This is the first time I’ve included a dedicated short-term trade section in the newsletter, and I’d like your feedback on whether this is something you’d like to see more regularly. More on that at the end.

As I’ve often reiterated, the macro thesis has not wavered. The business cycle is at its trough, the liquidity cycle has yet to produce the kind of major peak that has always coincided with Bitcoin’s cycle tops, and the structural analog to the NASDAQ trunk continues to unfold. This correction is a deviation within the trend, not a reversal of it.

Today’s topics

Bitcoin

• The Inverted View: One More Leg

• Macro Roadmap: Negative Trunk Deviation and the Liquidity Cycle

• Liquidity Lead-Lag Timing

Short-Term Trade Ideas

• BITI: Short Bitcoin Setup

• ETHD: Short Ethereum Setup

Reader Poll

Read more

What most people think of as “the crypto cycle” - the parabolic, euphoric blowoff that ends in capitulation - is only one phase of a much larger structure. And by the metrics that have explained every single prior cycle’s behavior, that phase hasn’t even begun yet. What we’ve experienced over the past three years has been a slow, grinding advance within the early-stage phase of what I believe will be the longest and most significant cycle in Bitcoin’s history.

Today, I’m going to take a fresh look at why the data supports that view, starting with a review of the macro thesis using what I consider the most important chart in crypto. I’ll then show you why we may only be at the halfway point of this broader move, what the long-term wave structure suggests lies ahead, and why the current correction - while painful - should resolve far more violently to the upside than the 2022 bottom did.

For Ethereum, the Amazon analog continues to track with uncanny precision, and I’ll break down the short-term paths I’m watching for both BTC and ETH. Finally, I’ll discuss a practical way to position for this final leg down using inverse ETFs, for those looking to maximize capital heading into the macro bottom.

Today’s Topics

Bitcoin

• Refreshing the Macro Thesis

• We’re Only Halfway

• Wave 3 of 3: The Bigger Picture

• Liquidity’s Disconnection Should Drive a Swift Reversal

• Short-Term Structure: The Final Leg Down

Ethereum

• The Amazon Analog: Still Tracking

• Short-Term Paths for ETH and BTC

Strategy

• Playing the Downside with Inverse ETFs

Read more

So today I’m not going to rehash the long-term case. Instead, I want to focus entirely on the short term - specifically, dissecting the most likely path to the Q1 bottom for those looking to tactically position around this final corrective leg. If you’re in Camp 1 and simply holding through, the message remains the same: stay the course. But for Camp 2 traders wanting to swing a portion of their portfolio to grow capital before reinvesting at the macro bottom, this issue is for you.

I’ve identified two primary scenarios for how this final leg plays out, along with a third invalidation scenario that would confirm the market has already bottomed. Each comes with specific levels, analog comparisons, and actionable structure across both ETH and BTC.

Today’s Topics

• Ethereum

  • The Amazon Analog: Targeting the Final Low

• Bitcoin

  • The Inverted Rising Wedge: Same Conclusion

• Short-Term Trading Structure

  • BTC Daily: The Pump Before the Drop

  • ETH Daily: Two Sub-Paths to the Bottom

• Invalidation

  • What Confirms We’ve Already Bottomed

• My Positioning

• Closing

Read more

Today I’m bringing together the complete picture. From the business cycle finally reaching its line in the sand, to the ETH fractal that’s been tracking Amazon’s 2008 structure with uncanny precision, to altcoin setups that mirror structures which preceded massive vertical legs in the past. Every signal I track is pointing to the same conclusion: we’re in the final stages of a wave 2 within a wave 2, and what comes next is the strongest wave of the strongest wave.

I’ll also address the Portfolio Analyzer. Given the magnitude of these developments and the convergence of signals, a major revision to the forecasting system is clearly needed. That update is coming - but I want to let the dust settle from this final corrective leg first to ensure the new model captures the full picture.

Today’s Topics

Business Cycle

• The Line in the Sand

• Why This Cycle Has Felt Different

ETH Fractal

• Amazon 2008: Still Tracking

Altcoin Structures

• Rounded Tops Spell Vertical Legs

• The Inverse DXY Blueprint

USDT.D

• The Lagging Confirmation

Bringing It All Together

• Wave 2 of Wave 2: The Complete Picture

Portfolio Analyzer

• Major Update Coming

Read more

Despite the delay, I wanted to provide a quick update on the two short-term scenarios I outlined last issue - because recent price action has shifted the probabilities.

Stay safe if you’re in the path of the storm.

Read more

It’s a fair question. The frameworks I’ve built over the past several years are grounded in data from Bitcoin’s existence - roughly 16 years. A true economic collapse of the magnitude we saw in 2008 would be uncharted territory for crypto.

But here’s what the macro cycle indicators actually show: we’re currently at the same bottoming levels as after the Great Recession, not before it. The very indicators that would warn of an impending collapse are instead positioned at the levels that have historically marked the end of major economic contractions - including the deepest one in modern history.

Today I’ll walk through this evidence systematically. We’ll examine the business cycle positioning, the RSI bullish divergence that continues to build, and a leading indicator from copper miners that’s already signaling the reversal. I’ll also introduce a unique bottom indicator using the Bitcoin/Silver ratio that has fired at the exact bottom of every prior bear market - and just fired again.

Finally, I’ll address the short-term picture. While the macro setup points decisively higher, I see two possible paths from here - one where the correction has already ended, and one where we see a final leg down into the 60K range before the larger advance begins. I’ll show you exactly what to watch to determine which scenario is unfolding.

Given the urgency of this short-term monitoring, the altcoin structure analysis I mentioned at the end of last issue will be covered next time.

Today’s Topics

• The 2008 Question

• Leading Indicators

• A Unique Bottom Signal

• Short-Term Scenarios

• Key Levels to Watch

The 2008 Question

Business Cycle Positioning

Let’s start with the most important chart for addressing the recession concern directly.

This is the Copper/Gold ratio on the 2-month timeframe, going back to 1999. The yellow line marks the level that has consistently identified the deepest business cycle reversals over the past 25 years. Look at where these reversals occurred:

• Late 1990s/early 2000s

• 2003

• 2008-2009 (end of the Great Recession)

• 2015-2016

• 2020

• Now

The critical point here is the 2008-2009 touch. That wasn’t before the Great Recession - it was after. The business cycle indicator reached this bottoming level as the recession was ending, not as it was beginning. The same level that marked the conclusion of the worst economic contraction in modern history is where we sit today.

This isn’t a signal that warns of impending collapse. It’s a signal that has historically marked the point where economic contraction transitions to expansion. Every touch of this level has been followed by a significant advance in risk assets.

Stochastic RSI Confirmation

Adding the Stochastic RSI to this framework provides additional confirmation of where we stand.

The green circles at the bottom of the chart highlight the Stochastic RSI bottoming zones. Notice the pattern: these momentum troughs have aligned with the same business cycle bottoming levels we just examined.

What’s particularly notable is the similarity between the current Stochastic RSI signature and what we saw at the end of the Great Recession. Both periods show the indicator reaching deeply oversold territory and beginning to curl upward from extremes. This is the momentum reversal signature that precedes major business cycle turns.

We’re not seeing the kind of momentum profile that precedes economic collapse. We’re seeing the profile that follows it.

RSI Bullish Divergence

Now let’s examine what I consider one of the most compelling signals for the upcoming reversal - the bullish divergence building in the Copper/Gold ratio.

The yellow lines on both the price and RSI panels tell the story. As the Copper/Gold ratio has made lower lows, the RSI has made higher lows. This is textbook bullish divergence - a momentum reversal signal that warns of an impending trend change.

Study the historical instances marked on this chart. Every single bullish divergence period in the Copper/Gold ratio - including at the end of the Great Recession - was followed by a major reversal in the business cycle and consequently in risk assets.

But here’s what makes the current setup particularly compelling: the duration. The only time we’ve seen anything close to this prolonged a buildup of bullish divergence was around 2003. What followed was a monstrous multi-year advance.

The extended nature of this divergence isn’t a sign of weakness - it’s a sign of the magnitude of the reversal being loaded into the system. The longer the compression, the more powerful the release.

Leading Indicators

Copper Miners as a Leading Signal

If the Copper/Gold ratio is our primary business cycle indicator, copper miners serve as its leading signal. The logic is straightforward: mining equities discount future copper prices, meaning they tend to move before the underlying commodity.

This chart overlays COPX/Gold (copper miners relative to gold) with the Copper/Gold ratio itself, alongside Bitcoin for context. The green circles mark the key inflection points across cycles.

The pattern is consistent: COPX/Gold reverses before Copper/Gold does. It serves as an early warning system for business cycle turns.

Look at what’s happening now. COPX/Gold has already violently reversed from its lows. The leading indicator has turned. Based on the historical relationship, this implies the same reversal is coming for the actual Copper/Gold ratio - and with it, the business cycle inflection that has preceded every major Bitcoin advance.

COPX/Gold MACD Cross

To add precision to this leading signal, let’s examine the 6-week MACD of COPX/Gold.

The yellow arrows mark the key moments: October 2016, October 2020, and now October 2025. In each prior instance, the COPX/Gold MACD cross preceded a significant advance in Bitcoin.

The signal has just fired again. The leading MACD cross that preceded the 2017 and 2021 runs is now in place for the current cycle.

This doesn’t guarantee timing - the lag between the COPX/Gold signal and the actual Copper/Gold reversal can vary. But the directional implication is clear: the leading indicator is telling us the business cycle turn is approaching.

A Unique Bottom Signal

Bitcoin/Silver Ratio

I want to introduce a signal I haven’t discussed publicly in some time - one that has an uncanny track record of identifying bear market bottoms.

This is the 1-month RSI of the Bitcoin/Silver ratio. The yellow line marks the level that has consistently identified the exact bottoms of every prior bear market in Bitcoin’s history.

• 2011 bottom: RSI touched the line

• 2015 bottom: RSI touched the line

• 2018-2019 bottom: RSI touched the line

• 2022 bottom: RSI touched the line

• Now: RSI sitting right on that same line

The consistency is remarkable. This isn’t a level that gets touched frequently - it specifically marks the deepest points of market pessimism, where Bitcoin is most undervalued relative to silver as a competing store of value.

We’re sitting on that line right now. The same signal that fired at every prior bear market bottom has just fired again.

Now, I want to be clear about what this means in the current context. Most wouldn’t consider Bitcoin to be in a “bear market” since January 2025 - after all, we’re still above the levels from a year ago. But the wave structure analysis I’ll show next suggests we’ve been in a larger-degree correction since early 2025. The Bitcoin/Silver signal reaching this level is consistent with that correction nearing its end.

Short-Term Scenarios

While the macro indicators point decisively higher over the coming months and years, the short-term picture presents two possible paths. Let me walk through each scenario and what to watch for confirmation.

Scenario 1: Running Flat Complete

This chart shows my wave count since the 2022 bottom. The impulse from the lows completed a clear five-wave structure into early 2025, with the following characteristics:

• Wave (3) peaked the RSI - this is typical behavior where the strongest wave produces the highest momentum

• Wave (5) showed the first bearish divergence against wave (3) - again, typical for fifth waves

• What I’m labeling as a (B) wave showed the second bearish divergence

Remember that bear markets are simply larger-degree corrections. The structure since the wave (5) high suggests we’ve been in an A-B-C corrective pattern.

In this first scenario, the (C) wave has already completed, forming what’s called a running flat - where the C-wave terminates above the A-wave low. The Bitcoin/Silver ratio bottoming could be lining up with this correction nearing its end.

If this scenario is correct, the macro bullish continuation has already begun.

Scenario 2: Expanded Flat with Final Leg

The second scenario must also be considered. Here, the monthly candles are sitting right on the Bollinger Band basis, with RSI at the same level as before the breakdown from the bear flag that led to the second C-leg in the 2021-2022 correction.

In this case, the (C) wave has another leg down, forming an expanded flat similar to the 2021-2022 structure. The pink path shows what this would look like - a corrective backtest of the macro cup-and-handle neckline before the larger advance begins.

Target for this leg would be around the 60K level.

I want to be clear: this scenario doesn’t change the macro view. The business cycle indicators, the leading signals from copper miners, the Bitcoin/Silver bottom signal - all of these point to the same conclusion regardless of whether we see another short-term leg down. The path to get there would simply be more volatile.

Key Levels to Watch

This lower timeframe view shows both scenarios side by side with the key levels for confirmation.

Bullish Scenario (Left Panel): If the correction has ended, we’re currently in local parabolic accumulation. I’m watching for a break and sustained hold above 95K as the bullish breaker that confirms this path. A decisive move above this level with follow-through would signal the correction is complete and the next leg higher has begun.

Bearish Scenario (Right Panel): If the correction has another leg, a break below 87K will serve as confirmation and mark the start of the final C-leg down. Target would be around the 60K level.

Though this second scenario would arguably lead to widespread panic in the short term, refer back to the macro charts for context. A dip to 60K would be quickly forgotten once the macro bullish continuation to follow kicks in. It would represent a deeper shakeout before the move that the business cycle indicators are signaling - not a change in the ultimate destination.

Closing

The concern about a 2008-style crash is understandable given the uncertainty in global markets. But the data tells a clear story: we’re positioned at the same business cycle levels as after the Great Recession, not before it.

The evidence stacks up:

• Copper/Gold sitting on the bottoming line that has marked the end of every major economic contraction since 1999

• Stochastic RSI showing the same reversal signature as the end of the Great Recession

• Bullish divergence building to levels only seen once before - preceding a multi-year advance

• Copper miners already reversing, providing the leading signal for the business cycle turn

• COPX/Gold MACD cross firing at the same timing as October 2016 and October 2020

• Bitcoin/Silver bottom indicator at the exact level that has marked every prior bear market bottom

The macro direction is clear to me. The only question is the short-term path.

Watch 95K as the bullish breaker. Watch 87K as the bearish confirmation. One of these levels will break first, telling us which scenario is unfolding.

Either way, what lies on the other side of this consolidation is the business cycle reversal that has preceded every major advance in Bitcoin’s history. The signals are in place. The reversal is approaching.

Next issue, I’ll present the altcoin structure analysis across different token chart characters.

Today, as we close out the year, I want to take a holistic view of the market and establish the macro positioning for everything that has ever influenced crypto. We’ll stack all the signals together for the complete picture, drawing from history as data for what will probabilistically emerge from today’s setup in 2026.

The conclusion is straightforward: every major signal I track is positioned similarly to the second half of 2020 - the period that immediately preceded one of the most explosive moves in crypto history.

Today’s Topics

The Business Cycle Foundation

• The Clean Signal

• The Mini-Cycle Explained

Cross-Asset Validation

• Manufacturing Confirms

• Ethereum’s Structural Setup

• ETH/BTC: The Altcoin Ratio

• Russell 2000: Small Cap Stocks

Signal Convergence

• Bringing It All Together

• The Precious Confirmation

Looking Ahead

• What 2026 Holds

• Next Issue Preview

Read more

Today’s primary focus, however, isn’t on the short-term gyrations. It’s on something that will matter far more for your returns over the next 12-24 months: sector selection.

As I discussed last issue, the altcoin market is more congested and complex than ever before. Thousands of tokens compete for capital across dozens of narratives. In this environment, choosing the right sectors will separate those who capture substantial gains from those who watch the market rise while their holdings underperform.

I’ve spent considerable time constructing sector indices where none existed in TradingView over a long enough time horizon - selecting tokens with sufficient chart history to produce reliable reads. What emerged is a clear hierarchy of opportunity, from continuation plays in established sectors to deep-discount compression patterns in beaten-down categories.

This analysis will help you understand not just which sectors I believe offer the best risk-adjusted returns, but why the charts point to these conclusions. I’ll also present five sample portfolios across the risk spectrum, complete with specific token allocations, so you can position according to your own risk tolerance.

Today’s Topics

Market Update

• Ethereum

• Bitcoin

• Low Timeframe Structure

Sector Analysis

• Layer 1: The Continuation Play

• DeFi: Strength in Structure

• AI: High Risk, High Reward

• RWA: Compression Ready to Release

• DePIN: Deep Discounts, Deep Opportunity

Sample Portfolios

• Portfolio Construction Philosophy

• Five Portfolios Across the Risk Spectrum

Read more

Today, I want to crystallize the long-term view by bringing together all the top cyclical signals I’ve now spent years studying. After the timeline adjustments in Issue #82, some of you have understandably wanted more clarity on the macro picture. This issue is dedicated to providing exactly that - a comprehensive framework that explains not just where we’re going, but why the data points so clearly in that direction.

Today’s Topics

The Holy Grail Chart

• Seven Elements Explained

• Cycle Symmetry and Timing Implications

Trunk Confluence

• Remarkable Four-Year Tracking

• Mean Reversion Dynamics

The Liquidity Cycle

• Key Ratio Framework

• Business Cycle Alignment

• The Early 2023 Anomaly Explained

• Sub-Cycle Implications Through 2028

The Russell Signal

• Small Cap Structure and Expansion

• Business Cycle Correlation

• Altcoin Market Implications

Looking Ahead

• Sector Analysis Coming Next Issue

Read more

This isn’t capitulation to bearish sentiment. This is adaptation based on what the data is showing. I’ve always tried to give it to you straight, to share how I see it as the picture develops, and today requires exactly that kind of transparency.

The business cycle positioning remains unambiguously bullish for the macro picture. We’re at the bottom, not the top. Nothing about that fundamental read has changed. What has changed is my understanding of how we get from here to there over the next several months. The path appears more volatile in the near term than I previously projected.

I’m also launching major updates to the Portfolio Analyzer app today. The 2nd generation forecast model represents a complete overhaul of the prediction system, arriving at precisely the moment when understanding your portfolio’s trajectory through the upcoming volatility becomes most critical.

Given this adjustment to the short-term forecast, I’m temporarily shelving the trunk Local Top Meter until we’re past this near-term corrective move. In its place, I’m launching the Relief Rally Meter to track the probability of a local corrective high forming before the move down.

Today’s Topics

Market Update

• Business Cycle Signals: The Macro Foundation

• Ethereum’s Corrected Structure

• The AMZN Analog Realignment

• Wave Structure and Near-Term Projections

• Fib Confluence and Timing

• Bitcoin’s Extended Timeline

• The Trunk Remains, Volatility Increases

Portfolio Analyzer Updates

• New Forecast Model

• Relief Rally Meter

Market Update

Business Cycle Signals: The Macro Foundation

Let me start with what hasn’t changed: the business cycle signals that form the foundation of this entire analysis. These indicators continue pointing unambiguously higher for the macro picture.

This is one of our primary business cycle signals - the 2-month RSI of the Copper/Gold ratio. This tracks the manufacturing cycle, which in turn tracks global liquidity flow and risk appetite. As I’ve detailed extensively in previous issues, this framework has explained every phase of every crypto cycle.

The pattern is crystal clear. Tops occurred when this signal hit the upper line. Bear markets ended when the midline was hit. Note the short-term bounce in the signal after each midline hit. The pre-parabolic “ramp” phase - where we’ve been stuck for what feels like an eternity - runs as the signal trends down toward the bottom line.

This current descent to the bottom has been the largest distance to fall ever recorded, which has directly produced the largest ramp phase ever. We’re now finally positioned right near the bottom.

The macro points way up. This signal doesn’t lie, and it’s not ambiguous.

Another lens on the same fundamental dynamic is the business cycle viewed directly through Copper/Gold’s 2-month MACD - what I’ve called the “Holy Grail Chart.”

We’re near the inflection level and may finally be reversing. I encourage you to study the legend in the upper left carefully. It explains every attribute of every Bitcoin cycle with remarkable precision:

• Red bars at tops = USD price tops

• Blue signal tops = Impulse tops

• Red bar declines = Bear markets

• Green bars = Bull market ramp phase

• Red bar profile = Character of parabolic move

According to this framework, the parabolic move hasn’t even begun. We remain deep in the green bar ramp phase, grinding toward the inflection that will flip the bars red and initiate the acceleration everyone has been waiting for.

Again, the macro points way up. The business cycle is at the bottom, not the top.

This is the foundation. Everything that follows builds from this macro reality. The near-term volatility I’m about to detail doesn’t contradict this positioning - it’s a function of how markets actually traverse from business cycle troughs to peaks. The path is rarely smooth, especially in an environment this extended and compressed.

Ethereum’s Corrected Structure

Today I’m reversing the usual order. Ethereum is actually offering the clearest signal, in my opinion, as to what lies immediately ahead for the crypto market. We’ll start with ETH, then pivot to Bitcoin.

I previously shared this read on Ethereum against the Amazon analog, and something always bothered me about the alignment. The structural parallels were there, but the timing felt slightly off in ways I couldn’t quite articulate.

I’ve spent considerable time studying all aspects of this analog and how its forecast aligns with what other Bitcoin and Ethereum technicals have been telling me. I believe I’ve figured out the issue.

The AMZN Analog Realignment

The actual wave structure alignment is like this: we’re currently positioned halfway through the volatile yellow period that follows the longer prior volatile green period.

This adjustment changes the near-term projection significantly. The green zone in Amazon’s structure represented the initial recovery and volatile advance. The yellow zone represents a secondary volatile period - choppier, more prone to sharp reversals, but ultimately still advancing. Also known as a wave 1-2-1-2. More on this later.

Here’s how the full projection overlays when we correct for this structural understanding:

I’m expecting a short-lived counter-trend move up, followed by a short-lived C-leg type sharp move down, followed by rapid recovery. This isn’t a macro reversal. This is intra-yellow-zone volatility playing out exactly as the analog suggests it should.

The Amazon comparison shows a remarkably similar structure in its yellow period - a bounce to retest resistance, followed by a sharp but brief decline, then resumption of the larger advance. That’s the template we’re following.

When I study the RSI carefully, the alignment becomes even more compelling. The correlation is uncanny.

The green zone was a nearly perfect RSI match - down to single RSI units in terms of precision. Ethereum didn’t extend quite as high into the yellow zone as Amazon did at this stage, but it’s now decidedly on its way down in terms of momentum.

We’re approaching the point where there’s high probability of a bounce to a local corrective high before the yellow zone move completes with RSI approaching the level where it bottomed during the green zone.

The consistency here isn’t coincidental. We’re seeing the same behavioral patterns play out at similar structural positions, which gives me confidence in projecting forward.

Fib Confluence and Timing

Let’s zoom in to examine the specific tools those interested in timing these moves can use for tactical positioning.

The retracements to 0.618 have been remarkably consistent throughout this structure. Based on the analog and the current positioning, I’m expecting:

Counter-trend corrective high: Approximately $4,000-4,200, with RSI climbing to around 55

Subsequent C-leg down: To approximately $2,000-2,200, with RSI declining to around 30

Timeline: Corrective high likely by late December/early January, low in Q1 2026

The 0.618 retracement has been the consistent level where bounces exhaust throughout this pattern. The 0.382 level has marked the lows.

Even the substructural consistency within the yellow zone advance reinforces this read.

Note the nearly identical impulsive structure in the leg up within the yellow zone. The wave character, the momentum profile, even the specific subwave relationships show remarkable consistency between the Amazon analog and Ethereum’s current behavior.

This granular level of alignment gives me confidence that the analog remains valid and useful for projection. We’re not just seeing vague similarity - we’re seeing specific structural repetition at multiple degrees.

And it is impulsive. Here’s how I read the nested wave 1-2 structure and sub-ABC formations:

The structure breaks down into clear impulses and corrections at multiple degrees. The current positioning suggests we’re in a B-wave of a larger corrective sequence before the C-leg down completes the pattern.

This matters because B-waves often produce the most frustrating price action - counter-trend moves that feel like reversals but are actually just volatility within a larger correction. That’s what I believe the bounce to $4,000-4,200 will represent.

Zoom out slightly and you see the larger 1-2-1-2 structure I read as building:

This nested structure means that a wave 3 of wave 3 comes after this short move down. And recall that I read the current macro positioning as already being within a wave 3, which would technically make the upcoming advance a wave 3 of 3 of 3.

Bitcoin’s Extended Timeline

Now let’s examine the Bitcoin implications of this Ethereum analysis. The trunk analog I’ve been tracking shows how I see the sharp drop ahead playing out, followed by the longer-term advance.

This represents a significant adjustment to my timeline, and I don’t take modifications like this lightly. Here are my updated projections:

$100,000-110,000 by end of 2025 (corrective high)

$85,000-95,000 in Q1 2026 (corrective low)

$150,000 by H2 2026

$180,000 by H2 2027

$300,000 in 2028

Yes, my entire outlook has extended even further into the future. This is what all the data is telling me. The business cycle’s extended bottoming process has stretched the timeline for the entire advance. What I previously thought might occur in 2026 is now pushed to 2027-2028.

The macro-level story hasn’t changed: we have way further up to go. The monthly volatility is just likely to be more turbulent in the near term on this even slower path to get there.

Who should care about this adjustment? It depends on your approach:

Long-term holders and cycle swing traders shouldn’t be particularly concerned. The destination remains the same, just with a more extended journey.

Sub-cycle swing traders absolutely need to pay attention. The near-term volatility represents both risk and opportunity depending on positioning and execution.

The Trunk Remains, Volatility Increases

The trunk structure itself remains intact. What’s changing is my understanding of the volatility profile within that trunk - specifically, that we’re about to experience a sharp corrective wave before the next major leg higher.

Finally, let’s overlay the NASDAQ analog with this updated read to see how they align:

The overlay shows Bitcoin following the trunk trajectory but with considerably more volatility - especially overshoots above the NASDAQ trunk path followed by consistent reversions back to it.

The upcoming corrective move would represent one of these reversions to the trunk after the recent overshoot.

The business cycle foundation hasn’t changed. The trunk structure hasn’t changed. What’s changed is my understanding of the near-term path we’ll take within that larger framework.

Portfolio Analyzer Updates

Now let me turn to the Portfolio Analyzer updates that make this issue particularly actionable. The timing of these improvements couldn’t be better given the volatility ahead.

The Portfolio Analyzer is available at app.techdev52.com for all subscribers. If you haven’t accessed it yet, simply visit the site and follow the setup instructions to begin tracking your holdings and using the available tools.

For existing users, these updates go live today and will be immediately visible when you refresh the application.

New Forecast Model 🔮

The centerpiece of this update is the complete overhaul of the portfolio forecasting system. The previous generation had clear limitations I wasn’t comfortable with as the market enters this trunk-like phase.

Trunk-Based and Adaptive Pattern Recognition: The system now analyzes your portfolio’s historical behavior against the expected trunk structure of the overall market. The algorithm automatically adjusts its approach based on the available data and prior character of the portfolio.

How It Works: The forecast projects your portfolio’s potential path from November 2025 through the end of 2028, providing a general trend to monitor. This forecast offers a general trend. Individual assets will experience volatile deviations above and below the projected path, but each should revert toward the mean trajectory over time. Think of it as a central tendency rather than a precise prediction.

Current Forecast Implications: Given the near-term correction I’m anticipating, you should see the forecast model showing increased downside risk in the Q4 2025/Q1 2026 timeframe, followed by strong recovery and continuation into 2026-2027 and beyond.

Relief Rally Meter ⚡

Alongside the forecast overhaul, I’m introducing a new market timing indicator specifically designed for the current environment.

The Relief Rally Meter specifically tracks the counter-trend bounce I’m expecting into year-end. As that bounce develops and Ethereum climbs toward the $4,000-4,200 zone with RSI around 55, the meter should reach high readings (90+) signaling it’s time to de-risk or at minimum avoid adding exposure.

Reading the Meter:

0-30 (Blue/Green): Low readings suggest continuation potential. The market has room to run higher before exhaustion.

30-70 (Yellow/Orange): Mid-range readings indicate caution. Monitor other signals before making positioning decisions.

70-100 (Red): High readings warn of elevated correction risk. When the meter reaches 90+, probability of a near-term top increases substantially.

After the subsequent correction completes in Q1 2026, I’ll be reintroducing the trunk local top meter for the longer-term advance that follows.

In general I plan to swap out tools as they become contextually useful.

Why Ethereum as the Signal Source:

As I’ve explained in previous issues, Ethereum occupies a crucial position in the crypto market structure. It bridges Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market - less stable than BTC but more stable than most alts, making it an excellent gauge for overall risk appetite.

When ETH momentum reaches extremes, altcoins typically follow within days or weeks. This leading characteristic makes it the ideal input for a timing indicator designed to help manage altcoin-heavy portfolios.

Coming Soon

Two additional indicators remain in development with substantial progress:

Business Cycle Tracker: Will visualize the 2-month MACD histogram of Copper/Gold directly within your portfolio view, providing real-time context for how your holdings are positioned relative to the macro cycle. This will make the “Holy Grail Chart” accessible without leaving the portfolio application.

Local Top Meter: Will return once we’re past the near-term correction, providing the 2-week RSI-based signals for identifying local extremes during the trunk advance. This will essentially be the system I detailed in Issue #81, fully integrated into the portfolio interface.

Closing

Let me be direct about what today’s analysis means for positioning and outlook.

The Macro Foundation Is Intact:

The business cycle signals remain unambiguously bullish. We’re at the bottom, not the top. The 2-month RSI of Copper/Gold and the 2-month MACD both show positioning consistent with imminent macro inflection. Nothing about the fundamental setup has deteriorated.

The Near-Term Path Has Adjusted:

Based on the corrected Ethereum-Amazon analog alignment and the wave structure analysis, I now expect a sharp but brief corrective move before the next major leg higher. This isn’t a trend change - it’s volatility within an ongoing trunk structure.

The Timeline Has Extended:

The business cycle’s unprecedented slow-motion bottoming process has stretched the timeline for the entire advance. Major targets I previously projected for 2026 are now pushed to 2027-2028. The destination hasn’t changed, but the journey is taking longer.

For different market participants, this adjustment has different implications:

• Long-term holders: Stay the course. The macro setup remains compelling. Near-term volatility doesn’t change the fundamental trajectory.

• Cycle swing traders: The correction into Q1 2026 represents a strategic reaccumulation opportunity before the major advance into 2027-2028.

• Sub-cycle swing traders: The Relief Rally Meter provides the tactical signals I hope will be helpful in navigating the near-term volatility.

Stay focused on the data. Ignore the noise. Adapt when the evidence demands it.

Next issue, I’ll revisit these projections in light of how the counter-trend bounce develops and provide updated guidance on positioning for the correction that should follow.

What we’re witnessing isn’t the clean parabolic structure many expect from crypto cycles, but rather a grinding, choppy advance that feels uncertain in the moment yet maintains its upward trajectory over time.

Today’s analysis focuses on delivering what I promised last issue: a concrete framework for identifying local tops and bottoms within this trunk structure, and a completely revised exit strategy designed specifically for navigating extended wave 3 movements in slow business cycle environments.

The business cycle remains our North Star, and its positioning continues to tell the same story it’s been telling for months: we’re at the bottom, not the top. The extended timeline that has characterized this cycle isn’t changing that fundamental reality - it’s merely stretching the timeframe over which it unfolds.

I’ve spent considerable time refining the local top identification system, testing it against historical data, and ensuring it provides actionable signals rather than adding to the noise. What I’m presenting today represents a straightforward approach that balances simplicity with effectiveness.

Additionally, the Portfolio Analyzer has undergone significant structural improvements. While some features have been temporarily removed for refinement, what’s been added - particularly the Local Top Meter - provides immediate value for position management.

Today’s Topics

Bitcoin

• Business Cycle: The North Star Unchanged

• Bullish Divergence at Historic Extremes

• Gold’s Cycle Alignment

• The Nested Cup-and-Handle Structure

• Ultra-Low Timeframe Projections

Ethereum

• The Trunk Develops

• ETH-AMZN Analog Continues

• Local Top Identification Framework

• RSI Zones for Tactical Trading

Exit Strategy

• Two Camps, Two Approaches

• Camp 2: Trading the Trunk

• Implementation Guidelines

Portfolio Analyzer »

• Local Top Meter Launch

• Forecast System Redesign

• Coming Soon Features

Read more